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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rogermci® who wrote (11312)	5/24/2003 10:39:50 PM
From: Dante Sinferno	Respond to of 11447

Re: "Record levels of money are hiding in money-market funds". I was hiding a chunk of retirement funds in the Gartmore MM Fund Prime Shares. For the quarter ending in March it "gained" a -0.1%. Not exactly the best place to hide anymore.

To: rogermci® who wrote (11312)	5/26/2003 3:30:32 PM
From: who cares?	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11447

I think i'm bearish because I don't focus just on tech. Across the street from me is a factory that makes store fixtures. It was there in 91 and 82 as well. Sometimes it's ran 2 full shifts and a 3rd shift skeleton crew, sometimes it has ran one shift on a four day workweek. Now it is closed. I doubt that it's uncompetitive, because despite being unionized salaries were in the $10-12/hour range. It's closed simply because there is no business and it's worse than in the past. The region i'm in was worse off in the late 70's and early 80's than now. Why? Housing. There's a Whirlpool factory nearby, and two different air conditioner and heater manufacturers. In the late 70's and early 80's these factories suffered massive layoffs and there was talks of closure. Then there have been boons where they ran wide open 3 shifts, typically though it's somewhere in between. Surprisingly, despite the housing boom the factories are running at the lower end of there average. When the housing slows, which would happen as rates tick up with any kind of real recovery, then you will have big layoffs at these plants. It will be the same phenomenon in the auto industry where despite record incentives to the consumer the backlog of cars keeps piling up. Because the govt. cut rates so far in a desperate bid to keep the economy moving by keeping the consumer spending(and piling up debt) Peter was robbed to pay Paul. Now instead of the economy bouncing, people being able to better afford house and car with their new job, they will be paying on the car and new mortgage or refi. and there will be huge layoffs in housing, auto's etc. The Fed has insured that any recovery we get will be weak at best. As for the mountains of cash on the sidelines, that's been there all the way down. Maybe there's a different message that that cash is sending? You have govt bonds yielding nothing, same with corporates. Our currency gets weaker, the equity market are still grossly overvalued by anyone with any sanity. So there's no where to put the money. It's safer to have it set and it get devalued than to invest in something overpriced or risky that's not yielding that much any more. Perhaps the fact that the huge mountain of cash refuses to flow into the equity markets in a meaningful way is screaming out that they're either overpriced, or that there is some risk that the avg joe isn't seeing. I ask myself, if you have to buy long and you have a currency going in the crapper, overpriced equity markets, non yielding gov and corp bonds, where do you go? Gold as a store of value, and commodities that we export(since they should be cheaper and more competitive on the world market).

To: rogermci® who wrote (11312)	5/26/2003 10:08:57 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 11447

Rydex numbers very bullish along the drop AAII bulls by end of last week. Also noticed high put/call ratios last week. Lots of skepticism. Should mean we have a lot higher to go.