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To: orkrious who wrote (4535)	6/3/2003 12:47:53 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

the US Economy continues to bleed jobs and capital to Asia instead of massive widespread collapses and failures, we have a socialist effect whereby the nation's wealth is downgraded and written down, by means of lesser value relative to foreign economies so far PHASE #1 has been an adjustment versus Europe this phase is well underway, and almost complete the next PHASE #2 will involve Asia all hell will break loose when the JYen rises this is inevitable the JYen is the only widely traded FOREX Asian currency, so it will be the vehicle of adjustment for the USDollar many thought in the mid-1990's that the Fed Chairman was a genius, in providing liquidity (credit funny money) to provide economic insurance against worldwide accidents but we got the 1997 Asian Meltdown, and the 2000 US Stock Bust next we get the great US TBond and Real Estate slow grind bust IT WILL BE PRECIPITATED BY THE INEVITABLE ASIAN IMPORTED PRICE INFLATION when Japanese Yen breaks out, and starts the process Asians will cut back in TBonds and GSE debt that will result in rising interest rates if the Fed wants to intervene and prevent it, then the USDollar adjustment will be even more painful and longer which will result in even bigger Asian imported inflation the JYen rise cannot be stopped, not by the US Fed, not by the BoJ as long as the US treats oversupply with more stimulus to encourage consumption, we will have the trade gap with us in a huge way and Japan will increasing difficulty in warding off the tide of capital flow THE FED INTERVENTION GAMES WILL STOP WHEN ASIAN CURRENCIES ADJUST UPWARD THEY WILL ATTEMPT IN FUTILITY TO PREVENT LONGTERM RATES FROM RISING / jim