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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (1789)	5/24/2003 12:39:07 PM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4912

Good post, but covers too many issues for the short amount of time to comment in detail; but a few points; Your comments on malinvestments creating oversupply are only partialy true and presume demand is a steady state phenomena without other factors. The ramp can just as easily be explained by stating the obvious, that burgeoning demand opened doors to a wide range of suppliers who brought different innovation to the table or none at all. I would suggest that this is a common phenomena in technology so it doe not represent anything special. What has changed is the forward movement has stalled to reassess future direction, I would further posit that You have not seen anything YET. Capital allocation is key within context of time. If your an Austrian you know what Von Mises stated in Human Action about Action in the passing of time. Fits and starts are the hallmark of sustaining momentum, it is not an either / or phenomena of a steady state economy. EBAY is a special case and deserves a lot of attention by itself. The reason that EBAY is so important is EBAY makes a market for everything. OLD, New, doesnt matter. It is an empowering application all by itself. It facilitates collectors, serves scarce interests and commodity interests where nothing else ever worked to restore any asset to the status of economic value to someone. This has actually put more money in motion than one way channels of distribution have ever done, it also explains how an economy can restore current value to latent valued items. I was under the impression this was a gold / currency thread if so I see the same mistakes of projection being made as it applies to gold and currency. I offered a question yesterday about the 3 reasons for gold and got a few replies that made no case what so ever. Demand is the key to understanding the dollar, all the emphasis here is on the rhetoric of supply. Too much, etc etc. The missing information is the metrics used in the past and overlaid on the marketplace as rational reasons for the dollar are incoherent with respect to the demand for dollars as applied to world markets. The Supply demand equations not being updated as fast as the fact of world economic calculation, therefore all the current arguments are little more than spin designed to help someone rationalize intermediate positions.