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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (74533)	5/24/2003 5:15:29 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 209892

Those are all very good points, John. Regarding the election cycle, it has been my contention that belief in that cycle kept us from finding a better bottom last year, i.e. that the belief that a bull would begin off whatever low was put in last October kept us from getting stronger capitulation and thus works against getting a cyclical bull because sellers were never washed out. The same thing for the down move that ended in March - there was so much talk about January 1991 that I again though it was a self-defeating belief. That said, it could just be that all that overhead supply that was never washed out could just give us a prolonged trading range, which isn't out of the question given the tendency of buyers to come in around the 1997-1998 Dow lows. I for one would prefer at least one more low with some significant bearish sentiment and capitulation, but it's possible that it won't come. So yes, there's lots of bearish doubt out there, myself included. What's that mean? I don't know, but to my mind, the biggest obstacle to major down is all those farking puts on the QQQ. Are they just hedges for trash longs? Certainly possible, as trash is flying like it's 1999 again. But the fact that the trash is flying could mean a top is near - I noticed they were starting to buy the incubators on Friday (CMGI, ICGE and SFE). Man, if that isn't a sign of a top, I don't know what is. -ng- The big caps have all stalled because there's no value there, so they're bidding the smaller stuff up until there's nothing left to bid up.