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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lone Ranger who wrote (30001)	5/25/2003 11:04:26 PM
From: Jeff	Respond to of 30712

well....if you are not rich.....or you don't have a paycheck to back up your mistakes....and you want to do this for a living.....you have to take a cold hearted no nonsense approach to the market and especially to t/a.... you find what works and you stick with it......over analysis paralysis will kill you in t/a reading as it just leaves you doubting what you see so you miss the obvious..... you just need one solid "foundation" indicator to make the difference..... for me thats AV-DB..... AV tells you to "think" bullish.....so you then know not to think "short"....so you then look at your other indicators with a bullish stance.....and take it from there DB tells you to "think" bearish...so you then know not to think "long"...so you then look at your other indicators with a bearish stance..... thats a foundation for decision making....if you don't know the trend....you have nothing..... and to really succeed at this game.....you have to know the percentage advantages and live by the saying "do the math" so to speak..... bullside....your gains to the upside can be unlimited...your downside is 100%... bearside...your gains are limited to 100%....your downside loss can be unlimited.... during the great bull market.....the best long plays were making 1000-5000-even 10,000% gains.... during the 3 year bear....the best short plays could have only made 100%... what that means is.....if you are serious about making money in this market....the "long" side is the place to make the "big" money.....because thats where the percentage is to your advantage...... to make a 100% gain on a short is rare and might take years..... but to make a 100% gain on a long can take as little as a day for crappers or for some better mid tier plays....they can do that in a 1-3 month bull trend.... take last year for example.....a bear year.... lets just say you shorted at 2000 and held to 1108.....thats not even 50% for 9-months..... in the august ramp alone for 3-weeks.....some crappers did 100-200% and some mid tier plays did 50-100% in that short time..... and shorts who held during that mini ramp likely gave back most of what it took them at that point 7 months to build up.... and i don't even have to mention what the october-november ramp might of did to some shorts.....because the percentage gain is greater and faster going up.....many shorts who built up 9 months of meager 50% gains probably where lucky to breakeven and stay in the gain..... all bears and shorts are dreaming of that nasdaq 700-800....but thats still only 50% down from here....and it might take a few years....and in that time.....even during mini bull ramps....some stocks will still be doing 100% and more ramps in a few weeks or months..... in a sideways market....percentage wise....bears and shorts don't have a chance because of the "math"..... but bulls still have stocks doing 50-100-200-500% gains.... the writing is on the wall here.....the bears have made their easy money.....them days are gone because time wise and percentage wise.....it just doesn't make sense anymore to be the bear only mentality trader.... if you miss these bull trends now.....because this is where the percentage gains and doing it in smaller timeframes is.....if you miss these.....your portfolio will bleed to death in the years ahead..... this is the phase where bears who over stay their welcome will be wiped out even though its still a bear market.... and its because of the "math".....period! shorting this year and watching all these stocks running wild is just plain insane....and thats something someone serious about making money just can't afford to do because the percentage going down from here with the time factor will not be enough to make up for missing bull moves like this..... that is the reality of it and thats why i tried to make this a reality thread.....but as was proven here....not many are dealing in reality and not many are doing the "math"..... shorts are trying to squeeze the last drop of blood out of this market....but in doing so they are fighting a losing battle because of the "math".....they are fighting for a 10-15% down but in doing so are losing 30-50-70-100% upside for that measly % down they want.... and in the end...even if they get that 10-15 or even 25% down....they would be so far in the hole....that drop likely would not get them back to even.... the days of thinking short only are over....it just takes some folks longer to realize that..... and its not going to be easy for bulls only either.....cause there will be nasty drops ahead.....so this is no buy and hold market.....and won't be for a long time..... so the ones who are selective "shorts" and "longs" in the rough years ahead will have the best chance.... bulls only had their day....bears only had theirs...... its time to become a "reality only" trader..... and now the reality is after a 3 year bear.....and wall street has "conditioned" the traders mind that the big gains will be on the "short" side..... the reality is.....the "puny" gains or "crumbs" is all thats left for the shorts....because of the "math"... any short gains can be wiped out in a heartbeat in this type market....and thats another reason for this rally to be acting like it has.....weak shorts who are losing their conviction....the market has them on pin and needles ready to cover at the hint of more up.....because the "math" can wipe them out real fast if they don't.....and they won't be making it up anytime soon going down.....because the "math" is not in their favor at this level..... the "math" and the market conditioning the mind to believe short is the place to be is why threads are becoming ghost towns and posters are melting away.... if you miss these rallies.....and especially try to short them and actually are losing money and getting deep in the hole..........you can't make it up going back down now....its just not going to happen.....