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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (242381)	5/26/2003 5:15:15 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

... The bottom line is that the near-term stimulative impact of the bill is significant. New withholding schedules are slated to be put in place during the next month or two. We estimate that about $50 billion will be freed up during the second half of this year due to lower tax withholding. Another $14 billion of rebate checks tied to the hike in the child credit will be mailed beginning in July. An additional $30 billion or so of the tax cuts for individuals will show up early next year in the form of increased tax refunds and smaller final payments. Factoring in the business tax breaks and the aid to states, this means that the overall stimulus associated with this legislation is worth about 1.5 percentage points of GDP during the next four quarters. This factor -- along with the impact of lower energy prices, a falling dollar, supportive financial market conditions and improving corporate profit trends -- is a big part of our call for a pick-up in US economic activity during the second half of 2003. morganstanley.com