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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (1875)	5/26/2003 12:07:47 PM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4905

What makes you think PPI is rising slower than CPI? I don't have April figures in front of me, but Jan-March '03 is as follows: CPI:....2.6%....3.0%....3.0% PPI:....2.8%....3.5%....4.2% PPI is above CPI in all three months. Re CPI being manipulated: I cannot say if figures themselves are being falsified, but it does seem rather strange that Fed found it necessary to cook up something called "price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy" - sort of a "pro-forma CPI". So they say this figure is low, and we should be scared of deflation. In a country with pretty much consistent inflation of about 3%. Unreal.

To: KyrosL who wrote (1875)	5/26/2003 12:18:28 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 4905

<How do you explain the fact that other measures of inflation, like the wholesale price index and the GDP deflator > 1.) The GDP deflator is a government jiggered, hedonically adjusted pot of stew no? 2.) Grant's reflation/deflation indicators are all higher than one year ago... Moody's scrap metal index, CRB, Rogers Int'l commodity index, Soybeans, Oil..... 3.) Economic cycle research institutes future inflation gauge is up to 119.4 from 100.7 a year ago! PPI? Don't know, is there any reason to believe it's that much more accurate than CPI? DAK

To: KyrosL who wrote (1875)	5/26/2003 12:20:32 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 4905

look at the median CPI. it's much higher. and remember the core CPI excludes such nonessentials as food and energy, which have risen sharply. producer prices have risen but there's been little pass-through due to overcapacity--i.e., producers have absorbed higher costs. this absorption is seen in the contraction of profits. corporate profits are now below 4% of GDP, i believe a postwar low. traditionally profits were 6% of GDP, though this will probably not happen again due to the rampant expropriation of shareholder wealth by insiders.