Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1065)	6/1/2003 12:25:26 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 1617

My Newsletter from 2 weeks ago..what a run huh? ============================================================ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED 18TH OF MAY 2003 "NOSEBLEED TERRITORY=CAUTION" Hello out there all my trading friends...hope this letter finds you and yours in great health and spirits... How long can this market keep on trucking huh? So far it's confounded ALL the Fall Street Pundits that's for sure..The shorts are getting murdered each and everyday...Have they capitulated yet? Are we at "THE" top? Is this the end of the great run? Beats the heck out of me folks<g>. I will not predict the top or the end of this fabulous run up here. And in reality why should I?..I have no clue right here if we're going to the moon or into the abyss... Of course all my technical indicators are extremely overbought.. I mean screaming ouch! What I call nosebleed territory. So that's a BIG warning to you all...DO NOT CHASE STOCKS THAT ARE UP IN THE STRATOSPHERE. Wait patiently for a pullback in the charts and then buy it, as long as we're still moving up...I would suggest to you all I see no evidence that a major crash is coming despite the doom and gloomers out there...Hell there always there right? Good or bad times..In fact i can always count on them right at the bottom of a crash move, to holler "this is the end of the whole market"! We are going to hell and back...I buy those dips folks..Took me a long time to understand that everyone, but I do it and with out fear. However that being said..I so SELL tops... What I would suggest here is any meaningful breather is just the pause that refreshes, for now..unless any of the main coaches reverse back down.The NYSE--OTC--or the OPTI. They are up there too..But I want you to try and understand what it would take for those 3 indicators to reverse here... A full 6% of ALL stocks on either index would have to reverse down...that a ton of stocks folks...the short term indicators would reverse first...they are the Hi Lo indexes for the OTC and NYSE and the Percent of 10 for the same 2..Then the OPTI, this is the whole world of optionable stocks would have to reverse 3 boxes to signal the big warning...Usually that's a precursor of the major main indexes to reverse...it can happen and usually does at these high levels...Again I am not predicting here because that would be dumb in the face of the bullish sentiment on the street right now...we could move a lot higher and soon...Being overbought is meaningless as it can stay this way for weeks even months... Now if you look at all the indexes on the Daily Candle Charts(DCC)..what we see is a picture of Rising Wedges that are a bearish formation. Usually they breakdown...If that happens this week, it would signal a strong correction is going to start, maybe 1st to the rising 20 ema(exponential moving average) on the DCC of all those indexes or maybe back to the middle of what I call the 10 week trading bands on the P&F charts. That would be a stiffer pullback...However, we need pullbacks to take out the excesses of the run up, so we can move back up again...It's impossible to move straight up folks...So watch this weeks action with care...I'll call the break downs in the wedges "if" they happen..Now on the flip side..every major technician out there "SEES" these bearish wedges right? Makes me think we could surprise to the upside instead..maybe I'm nuts but that's how I think all the time..in direct opposite of the mass thinking..it does not always work, but it sure has worked for me more often than not... Many traders will "anticipate" this breakdown of those wedges...they could get trapped big time..In fact it would add major fuel to this fire...and folks this fire is raging every single day..Do not anticipate...we have just come off a solid earnings season..it's done for now. But the street is very bullish here, and they are buying every dip automatically until something changes that thinking. And trust me everyone, something will change, when? not a clue, just know it WILL happen without a doubt...I was thinking we could even get a serious run up here ahead of the next FOMC meeting June 24th and 25th. The street is at 65% levels thinking they will cut rates...I do too right here..That in it self could explode this market up and have the bonds selloff...I could change my thinking just ahead but this economy needs a big shot in the arm and that Tax stimulus package was disgusting to say the least..The FED is determined not to let this economy sink back into recession, and they will defend it at all costs..Hence we have the FED on our side. Remember the cliché?, "Don't fight the FED"? Not me folks..and certainly not all of you... Bank on it folks..they are keeping a floor under this market and the economy all at once and doing a bang up job if you ask me...For now I am cautious here because the heights of all the indicators...that's the P&F indicators..NOT THE MARKET..The charts all show we have a shot at moving against the thinking in the next 2-3 weeks...if we break down the other way this week then we KNOW the pullback has begun and we'll need to monitor where it stops and reverses back up for the next expected big run..Remember what I'm about to say here. Just ahead of the FOMC and ahead of July's earnings season I think this market could move nicely higher..I sure would love a meaningful pullback, but hoping wishing and praying does not work in trading the markets...right now? WHAT IS..........IS. We are firing on all cylinders. Trade with care, but without fear. =============================================================================================== OK LET'S CHECK THE INDEXES AND ALL THE P&F SHORT AND LONG TERM INDICATORS...NOSEBLEED IS THE KEY WORD FOR TODAY. HERE'S A LOOK AT THE BULLISH PERCENTS OF THE MAIN COACHES AND SHORT TERMERS TOO.. NYSE BP=62.74% UP THERE OTC BP=57.17 HAS ROOM OPTI BP=67.08 UP THERE 10 WEEK NYSE=87.70 DOWN 2.35 FOR THE WEEK.. HI-LO NYSE=98.08 WHOA!! THATS NOSEBLEED... OTC HI LO=94.60 SAME O SMAE O WAY UP THERE.. GOT THE PICTURE? =============================================================================================== Here is a summary of Friday's action (05/16/2003). Full Report Univ Buy Sell Up Dn Rev Up Rev Dn NYSE 15 1 194 48 34 28 Nasdaq 16 7 221 97 46 63 Option 19 3 227 70 41 43 The NYSE saw 194 issues rising on their charts and 48 falling. There were 15 new buy signals given and 1 new sell signals given for a net gain of 14. There were 34 Upward Reversals and 28 Downward. JUST TO SHOW YOU THAT EVEN ON FRIDAY BUYING SWAMPED SELLING...THAT UP TOP IS FROM DORSEYWRIGHT.COM... HERE'S THE INDEXS BELOW... ===================================================================================== DJIA---EXCELLENT LOOKING CHART PATTERN ON P&F...BROKE A DOUBLE TOP LAST WEEK AND CONFIRMED THE TRIPLE TOP BREAK AT 8550..EXCELLENT SUPPORT AT THAT NUMBER AROUND 8500..REMEMBER THAT WAS VERY TOUGH OVERHEAD(O/H) RESISTANCE(R)...THAT'S THE 20 & 200 EMAS ON THE DCC CHARTS TOO...NOW IF IT PULLS BACK TO THERE THAT WOULD MEAN THAT RISING WEDGE BROKE DOWN...THAT COULD BE A NEGATIVE...THE MIDDLE OF THAT 10 WEEK TRADING BAND IS AT 8300/8400 AREA...IN FACT THAT 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN IS AT 8255. WHAT WITH THIS MARKET SO STRONG HERE, I WOULD THINK THAT WOULD BE ALL SHE WROTE.. COMPX---VERY VERY STRONG CHART HERE. THIS ONE IS IN A CHANNEL ON THE DCC, AND BROKE OUT LAST WEEK AS WELL ON P&F AT 1540...THERE IS "NO" RISING WEDGE THERE. NOW I DID A HORIZONTAL COUNT ON THIS INDEX WE COULD REALLY TOP OUT AT....AHHHHH...SHALL I SAY IT?<G>...1640...WHEW! THAT'S HIGH HUH?...THE GOOD PULLBACK(PB) HERE WOULD BE 1490/1500 THE 20 EMA DCC AND THE BOTTOM OF THAT CHANNEL. IF WE BREAK THAT CHANNEL THEN 1420/30 WOULD BE THE 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN...THATS THE MIDDLE OF THE 10WEEK(10WK)... SOX---5 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS ON P&F(POINT & FIGURE) CHARTS. BROKE YET ANOTHER ONE LAST WEEK AT 360. THAT DESPITE AMAT, INTC AND THAT AWFUL BOOK TO BILL...AND WHAT DOES THAT SUGGEST TO YOU? THE STREET IS LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD 3-6-9 MONTHS. THE BULLISH PERCENT(BP) SEMIS AT 58% AND HAS LARGE AMOUNTS OF ROOM UP HERE TO 76% OR SO...THE MOVE BACK DOWN HERE THE 20 EMA DCC AT 340/45. THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN AND THE 10WK ARE AT 325/330 AREA..THE "PROJECTION" FOR THIS INDEX IS AT 100% 369, THEN 181% AT 389...A REAL SHOT THERE MARKET WILLING. NDX---1170 THE BREAKOUT(B/O), 1110 THE BREAKDOWN(BD)..MID OF THE 10 WK IS AT THE SAME NUMBER OF THE 38.2% RETRACE 1070/80...20 EMAS 1ST TARGET WOULD BE 1125 AND A 3BXRVDN. I HAVE THIS PROJECTING TO 1220 ON THE B/O OF 1170. THE BPNDX IS AT 77% COULD YOU SAY OB?. IT WOULD TAKE A MOVE TO 72% TO CHANGE THE CURRENT TREND...THIS INDEX BP MOVES VERY QUICKLY. BTK---VERY NICE DCC AND P&F CHART HERE FOLKS..THE BIOS "RULE". IN A GOOD MARKET WE COULD SEE 455/460 QUICKLY. BP BIO'S IS AT 61.10% THE TOPS ARE AT 72% PLENTY OF AIR UP THERE. THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN IS AT 380/390 THAT WOULD BE A NORMAL 3-4 BOX REV DOWN. BKX---WONDERFUL CHART HERE IN THE BANKING INDEX..VERY ORDERLY AND SYMMETRICAL. IT B/O LAST WEEK ABOVE ALL R..TOUCHED 815. UPSIDE PROJECTION IS AT 848/850 I LOOKED AT THE 10 POINT CHART WHICH GIVES YOU A LONGER TIME FRAME LOOKSEE... VERY SOLID ABOVE 800. THAT SHOULD BE NEW TECHNICAL S(SUPPORT). 20 EMA IS AT 795/800 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN IS AT 757 WITH THE MID OF THE 10WK AT 750... SPX---THIS MAJOR INDEX I FOLLOW MORE THAN MOST BROKE OUT AGAIN LAST WEEK AT 940 AND TOUCHED 945..THERE IS HEAVY O/H R AT 955/960 HERE..THIS HAS A RISING WEDGE..IT MUST BE WATCHED. THE INDEX HAS REVERSED UP ON EVERY 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN OVER THIS PAST MONTH OR SO..VERY SOLID MOVES. BPSPX IS AT 68% AND 76% IS A TOPPING AREA...888 THE 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN. 885 MID10WK. I CAN PROJECT THIS INDEX HIGHER AT 1ST 956.00 THEN 978..MARKET WILLING... SPM3--THE FUTURES. ALSO BROKE A DT AT 940 AND HIT TOUGH O/H R AT 948. ACTUALLY PRINTED A CONTRACT HIGH OF 949.75 LAST WEEK. 936 IS A 3 BOX REVDN. THE 20 EMA IS AT 923.00. 916 IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAK... 884 & 889 THE 38.2% AND MID 10WK...ON THE UPSIDE. 957.00 AND 981 ARE THE PROJECTIONS... NQM3-NAZ FUTURES---1170 THE B/O BUY. 1182 100% PROJECTION WITH 1234 THE 181%. 1110 THE BKDN. 20 EMA AT 1127, MID10WK AT 1090 AND THE 38.2% RETRACE IS 1084. THIS IS MORE OF A CHANNEL THAN A WEDGE TO ME... VIX AND VXN--STILL BOTH LOOK WEAKER TO ME..THEY ARE BOTH IN A CHANNEL. AND COULD HEAD A LOT LOWER HERE..BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL BOUNCE OF SOME MERIT. VIX TARGET ALREADY HIT AT 20..NEXT IS 18 THAT WOULD BE THE MARCH 2002 LOWS...VXN IDENTICAL CHART TARGET HIT ALREADY, 28/29 NEXT... =============================================================================================== OK HERE'S THE STOCKS TO WATCH THIS WEEK...LIKE I SAID IT'S ALL OVER BUT THE MUSIC FOR EARNINGS. SO THE MARKET WILL BE SENSITIVE TO ANY ECONOMIC NEWS AND ANYTHING DISTURBING WORLD WIDE.. DELL---I OWN THE JUNE CALLS...LOVE THE CHART AND THE STOCK AND THE COMPUTER SECTOR ON P&F...A NORMAL PB HERE WOULD BE TO 29 A 3BXRVDN...I WOULD DOUBLE THE POSITION THERE...THERE'S A GRAVESTONE DOJI ON FRIDAY SO MORE DOWN IS COMING..THE 20 EMA DCC IS RIGHT AT 30.50. WE'LL SEE...31.60 THE BTL---30.75 THE SST...BUY THE DIP. BRCM---I OWN THE JUNE 20'S LOVE THIS STOCK AND THE CHART. BROKE A PENNANT FORMATION ON THE DCC THIS PAST WEEK AFTER BASING SIDEWAYS FOR A MONTH. VOLUME LOOKS GREAT TOO. MUST TAKE OUT 22 HARD...21.90 THE BTL---21.00 THE SST...SITTING ON THE 20 EMA 15 MIN CHART...SWEET STOCK CHART FOLKS. NVLS---I AM LONG THIS STOCK AND LIKE THE P&F CHART HERE..31 IS A DT BUY SIGNAL...WITH 35-37 AS THE UPSIDE TARGETS..WHILE I HAVE SHARES I MAY USE OPTIONS TOO...29.55 THE BTL---28.50 THE SST... ZRAN---I AM LONG THIS STOCK TOO...EXCELLENT P&F CHART..DOJI ON FRIDAY THO..COULD PULLBACK HERE...17.50 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN(3BXRVDN)...19.05 THE BTL---18.10 THE SST... NVDA---ONE WHALE OF A HIGH POLE...PEOPLE WERE ASKING ME ABOUT "HIGH POLES" TO SHORT..HERE'S ONE<G>..BUT WAIT I LIKE IT LONG TOO...HEH HEH HEH...NO SELLERS IN THIS STOCK AFTER EXCELLENT NUMBERS IT DIDN'T EVEN REVERSE 3 BOXES? STILL UP THERE...AND IT "CAN" GO HIGHER IF THE MARKET CONTINUES ON UP...21.75 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)---20.70 THE SST...I LIKE IT LONG HERE AND WILL SCALP IT... STAT---I'VE OWNED THIS ONE NOW TWICE...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF INTEREST IN THE STEM CELL GROUP OF THE BIO TECHS..THIS ONE GOT UPGRADED NOT TOO LONG AGO..REMEMBER THIS WAS MY "TIP" PLAY OF 5-6 WEEKS AGO AT 4.00 I OWNED THE 5 CALLS...WELL I SOLD MY CALLS FOR 150% PROFIT..AND DECIDED I DO NOT WANT TO BE OUT OF THIS STOCK SO I BOUGHT THE JULY 7.50'S...THIS STOCK HAD GOOD VOLUME THE LAST 2 DAYS...ESP ON FRIDAY...8.80 THE BTL---8.15 THE SST..TARGET IS 11.50/12.00 CHKP---HAD A VERY NICE B/O LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AT 16.50 RAN UP TO 18.50 AND HAS NOW REVERSED BACK DOWN 3 BOXES...SITTING ON THE 20 & 200 EMA'S ON THE DCC...ALREADY DID A 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN..THIS IS SET UP NICELY FOR A BUY HERE...17.50 THE BTL---16.65 THE SST...IF YOU GET IT LONG USE STOPS BELOW THE 16.50 LEVEL...ALSO YOU CAN USE THE JULY/AUG 15 CALLS...OR THE 17.50'S TOO...MOVES SLOWLY BUT SOLID... INTC---BROKE SOME VERY TOUGH R AT 20 TO THE UPSIDE LAST WEEK..HAD A CC TOO AND SAID NOTHING NEW...BUT NOTHING BAD EITHER<G>...20 EMA IS AT 19, THE 200 AT 18.50 THAT'S THE 3BXRVDN AREA...IT WILL UPDATE MID QUARTER ON THE 15TH I THINK, WE NEED TO CHECK THAT OUT...19.85 THE BTL---19.20 THE SST... JCOM---JUST BROKE OUT TO A 52 WEEK HIGH LAST WEEK ON NEWS OF A DEAL WITH MSFT...I'VE TRADED THIS ONE FOR A TON OF PROFITS LONG...HAS A CUP LOOKS ON THE DCC AND COULD CONTINUE ON UP THE EAST SIDE RIGHT NOW...36.75 THE BTL---35.85 THE SST..MUST TAKE OUT FRIDAYS HOD..USE STOPS THIS THING IS WILD<G>... JNPR---EXCELLENT CHART WITH A PROJECTION TOOL OF 14.50-15.50 IF THE MARKET CONTINUES UP...THE 20 EMA IS 11.25 DCC...13.60 THE BTL---12.70 THE SST... KLAC---WEAKER LAST WEEK HAD 4 DAYS OF PULLING LOWER..A BREAK OF 40 GIVES A RIDE I THINK TOWARD 38/39 THE RISING BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL)..A PREFECT PLACE TO BUY IT DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS...40 IS THE 3BXRVDN---41.00 THE BTL---40.05 THE SST... MERQ---I REALLY LIKE THIS CHART FOLKS...IT HAS O/H R ABOUT 39..BUT 40 WOULD BE A 52 WEEK HIGH...I HAVE A HORIZONTAL COUNT OF 51/52...YOU COULD BUY THE JULY 35'S HERE..MARKET WILLING OF COURSE...MAYBE WE GET A SMALL PULLBACK IN THIS ONE AND THE MARKET TO GET SKINNY LONG...37.70 THE BTL---36.85 THE SST... MLNM---HAD SUPERIOR NEWS LAST WEEK AND BROKE OUT AT 12.50 ON HIGH VOLUME..THERE'S A 2 STICK BULLFLAG PB HERE...14.55 THE BTL---13.90 THE SST..I LIKE IT LONG..USE THE AUG 12.50 CALLS... NTAP---STELLAR EARNINGS I OWN THIS AT 16.20 AND WILL ADD ON A PULLBACK...BOTH DELL AND NTAP WERE DOWNGRADED ON "VALUATIONS" THE BEST KIND OF DOWNGRADE AS THEY MET WALL STREET TARGETS...16.30 THE BTL---15.25 THE SST...I LOVE IT FOR AN ADD ON PLAY ON A BREAK OF THAT LONG TRIGGER... GILD---FABULOUS P&F CHART HERE, WITH THE DCC RIDING UP ON THE 20 EMA ALL THE WAY...46 THE 3BXRVDN WITH 45 A DB BREAK AND THE START OF A SHAKEOUT PATTERN ON P&F...48 THE BTL---46.95 THE SST... CEPH---AT A TRIPLE TOP HERE FOLKS...IF IT BREAKS 44 IT'S OFF TO THE RACES...42.95 THE BTL---41.95 THE SST..I LIKE IT LONG HERE..CLOSE STOP BUT IT LOOKS NICE..A BIO TECH.. IDPH---VERY VOLATILE OVER THE LAST 2-3 MONTHS BUT IT SURE IS TRADEABLE...DID A BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSAL WHEN IT BROKE A DT AT 38 EARLY APRIL THATS VERY BULLISH EVERYONE, IT THEN SOLD OFF DOWN TO 31, AND IT'S NOW STARTING ANOTHER MOVE UP HERE...34.70 THE BTL---33.75 THE SST...I LIKE IT LONG IN A SWING TRADE, YOU CAN USE OPTIONS TOO...THE 30"S OF JULY... VRSN---BROKE A BEAUTIFUL LOOKING TRIP[LE TOP AT 11.50 AND TOUCHED 13.50 ON THE WAY UP HERE..VOLUME ON THIS RUN HAS BEEN VERY GOOD...IT'S BEING ACCUMULATED AFTER SOLID EARNINGS REPORT...13.80 THE BTL---12.95 THE SST... EXPE---SENSATIONAL RISE FROM THE DEAD...MAKING BIG SWING MOVES OFF EVERY PULLBACK..AND EVERY PB IS BEING BOUGHT WITH A VENGENCE...IN A GOOD MARKET THIS COULD BE A $100 BUCK STOCK...70 THE BTL---68.90 THE SST...MAYBE WAIT FOR A 3-4 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN TO 65/66 AND THEN BUY THE JULY 60'S OR 65'S AND HANG ON FOR DEAR LIFE<VBG>...I'M GOING TO BUY THOSE FOR SURE!... ============================================================================================== OK SO WE HAVE A GAME PLAN HERE EVERYONE.. 1ST. NO CHASING AT THESE VERY LOFTY LEVELS..WAIT FOR A PB IN YOUR FAVORITE STOCKS.. 2ND..USE STOPS AT "ALL" TIMES HERE NO MATTER WHAT "I DO"..GOT THAT? PRESERVE CAPITAL... 3RD. WATCH FOR ANY BREAK DOWN OF THESE RISING WEDGES TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TRIANGLE..TRUST ME WHEN EVERYONE IS LOOKING DOWN, IT MIGHT JUST GO UP?... 4TH. WE ARE STILL IN AN UPTREND..NOT A DOWN TREND..INDEXES ARE BREAKING OUT EVERY SINGLE WEEK...YES WE COULD GET A SHORT PB, BUT FOR ME THAT WOULD BE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY UNTIL AND UNLESS MY SHORT TERM P&F INDICATORS TURN DOWN TO WARN US. 5TH. DO NOT SPECULATE...NO GUESSING HERE..AND STOP WORRYING ABOUT SARS, THE FED, WAR ON TERROR, THE ECONOMY ETC...WE CANNOT "TRADE" THAT..WE CAN ONLY TRADE THE CHARTS...WHAT IS.............IS. =============================================================================================== THERE IS A NEW AND IMPROVED PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK...IT'S....................nosebleed.......LET'S HOPE SOMEONE READS THIS LETTER THEY'RE PAYING FOR AND ACTUALLY SEES THAT NEW CHANGE ... NO CHANGE FOR THE ADMINS TILL NEXT WEEKEND... MY WARMEST REGARDS TO YOU ALL JERRY. PS..I'M NOT SURE WHAT I'M DOING TOMORROW YET, IT DEPENDS ON WHAT ARLENE WANTS TO DO...SO WE'LL SEE... HAVE A NICE REST OF THE DAY... PPS: HERE'S A LIST OF SMALLER BIO TECHS THAT HAVE HALF DECENT CHARTS... =============================================================================================== ABMD---I LIKE THIS STOCK AND CHART... CTIC---JUST BROKE OUT LAST WEEK... GERN---VACILLATING BETWEEN 4.75 AND 5.50..MESSED THIS TRADE UP FOR ME AND OTHERS... ARIA---NEEDS TO TAKE OUT 4.00 SLOWLY TRYING HERE... GENR---JUST MOVING A BIT NOW OFF THE LOWS OF THE YEAR...MIGHT GET TO 2.75 WITH LUCK... LATER...ALL.... jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net