To: Lucretius who wrote (95154 ) 5/27/2003 12:54:22 PM From: paul ross Respond to of 116836 Euro Extends Climb Vs Dollar After Data "The data we have from Japan shows colossal outflows from Japanese institutions into international fixed income that has probably been concentrated in Europe..." Reuters Tuesday, May 27, 2003; 11:31 AM By Daniel Bases NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro rose further into record territory on Tuesday as demand for higher-yielding, euro-based assets overshadowed U.S. economic data showing rising consumer confidence and a strong housing market. U.S. consumer confidence rose in May, but less than expected, while low mortgage rates spurred home buying in April. "The low interest rates that are going to help the housing market is not something that is going to be a factor in helping lift the dollar," said Steven Englander, chief North American foreign exchange strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. "What the FX market would want in order to buy dollars are data to suggest within a reasonable time that the Fed is going to raise interest rates in light of a stronger economy," said Englander who noted these data are not going to change anyone's view that the dollar will remain weak. Indeed, last week Barclays raised its three-month euro/dollar forecast to $1.25 from $1.10 on the assumption deflation remains a concern and interest rates remain low for an extended period in the United States. But the 12-month view remains for the euro to fall to $1.08 because the firm believes the European Central Bank will have to cut benchmark interest rates of 2.50 percent much more than currently expected. The ECB meets next week to discuss interest rate policy. The euro hit a record high $1.1932 in a knee-jerk sell-off after the U.S. data was released before quickly dropping back to $1.1892, a gain of 0.17 percent from Monday's New York close. The euro launched at $1.1747 on Jan. 1, 1999. Analysts said there was no specific factor driving the euro's gains but that it was aided generally by investor demand for euro zone government bonds and a lack of objection to its strengthening from the ECB. Since the start of 2003 the euro is up roughly 13 percent on the dollar and 11 percent on the yen. Against Japan's currency, the euro reached a record 139.10 yen before falling back to 138.82 yen, up 0.08 percent on the day. The dollar briefly slid to a one-week low against the Japanese yen of 116.21 before ricocheting back to 116.83 yen , unchanged on the day. Investors are taking heed of the latest warning from Japan's top financial diplomat Zembei Mizoguchi that Japan would act to prevent excessive swings in rates. The greenback struggled versus the Swiss franc which pushed to a fresh four and half year peak of 1.2786 per dollar . Sterling rose to a four-month high of $1.6471 and a three-month high of 72.14 pence per euro after the U.S. data. U.S. consumer confidence rose in May to a six-month high of 83.8 from 81.0 in April, but below economists' forecasts of 84.9. While news on consumer confidence rising is welcomed, it is not a factor in determining gross domestic product whereas new home sales do. April U.S. new home sales rose 1.7 percent, more than expected, while existing home sales last month climbed to an annualized rate of 5.84 million, also more than expected. Analysts noted European Central Bank current account data showed investors poured money into the euro zone in March at double the rate seen in February, with the portfolio investment inflow climbing to 20.7 billion euros from 10.7 billion. "The data we have from Japan shows colossal outflows from Japanese institutions into international fixed income that has probably been concentrated in Europe and that driver doesn't show any signs of being dissipated," Steven Pearson, chief currency strategist at Halifax Bank of Scotland Treasury Services.washingtonpost.com