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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (9900)	5/28/2003 2:00:14 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95730

I'm mostly in cash except for a few hundred shares I am short ALTR. Basically I'm attempting to refine a short term swing trading strategy (and its working) while I await further evidence of a bullish breakout in the market. Technical evidence supporting the bullish case is a lot easier to find right now than the reverse so despite the fact that sentiment data is far too bullish I don't know what to tell you about where the market goes from here longer term. Earnings warnings season is still probably a few weeks away but unless we get evidence of a strong business led recovery then we will certainly get some warnings. Maybe more than just a few. RtS

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (9900)	5/28/2003 5:34:49 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95730

From Briefing.com: So the markets favored a modestly higher bias coming off that massive Tuesday rally. Yet while the magnitude of the gains was limited, volume remained notably strong -- on the Nasdaq, total volume surpassed the 2.0 billion share mark. The price action followed on a weaker-than-expected Durable Goods number. Specifically, April Durable Goods orders fell 2.4% driven primarily by a 5.4% decline in transportation orders. Excluding transportation, orders experienced a 1.2% drop for the month. While not exactly bullish, the Durable Goods number is recognized as volatile, and also tends to experience large revisions. The disproportionate impact from the transportation sector may have countered an overtly bearish single-day response as well. Now this unusually strong volume over the prior two sessions is among the near-term considerations from a technical standpoint. While the strong volume does confirm the underlying buy interest -- and is consistent with a continuation of the broader bullish bias -- it also has the capacity to kill near-term trends. While it's difficult to become overly alarmed by that Wednesday session, it is worth noting the index closed just three points from its opening level after trading an intraday range of roughly 18 points -- put another way, the price action was consistent with hesitation. Whether 'hesitation' translates to continuation or reversal remains an open question. Looking towards Thursday, note that preliminary first quarter GDP is set for release at 8:30 ET. The GDP number serves as the broadest measure of economic activity, though this happens to be another economic release in which the data can be volatile. Be aware that net export numbers contribute disproportionately to the GDP's volatility. With the recent pronounced weakness in the dollar, the export component of GDP will likely receive a close look. The consensus analysts estimate is for first quarter GDP growth of 1.9%. Aside from the GDP data, the corporate earnings calendar remains relatively limited. Nonetheless, both Qwest (Q) and McDATA (MCDT) report Thursday and a surprise from either name could stir activity in their respective sectors. -- Mike Ashbaugh -- Briefing.com 4:31PM Cypress Semi announces $500 mln convertible offering (CY) 10.59 +0.08: 3:55PM Novellus (NVLS) 31.19 +0.17: With the March quarter earnings season in the rear view mirror, and the June quarter earnings season fast approaching, analyst/shareholder meetings have switched into high gear. As such, several companies will be hosting mid-quarter conference calls in the upcoming weeks, with semiconductor capital equipment name Novellus (NVLS) kicking things off tomorrow after the close. Having reaffirmed quarterly guidance in its previous two mid-quarter calls, most analysts expect NVLS to reiterate the Q2 (June) outlook given on its Q1 (Mar) conference call. At the time, NVLS projected EPS of $0.05, revenues of $238 mln, shipments of $215 mln, and bookings of approximately $188 mln. The latter figure stirred some concerns within the analyst community as it represented a 23% drop from year-ago levels. Industry peers, conversely, have forecasted bookings relatively flat with the prior year period.. With 1/3 of the quarter yet to be booked, most analysts look for NVLS to maintain its cautious orders guidance. In April, management noted that Q2 order expectations exhibited a decline in the preceding weeks due, in part, to fears over the SARS outbreak. Additionally, several of NVLS' customers have pushed out orders as a result of cost-saving efforts. Although NVLS never gives formal guidance beyond the current quarter, the Company does comment on industry visibility. Such comments will serve as an important gauge of the sector's intermediate term health, as well as provide a reference point for IT spending patterns. Particular items analysts will be paying close attention to include the impact of SARS on business going forward, whether customers have delayed more orders, and if NVLS anticipates an uptick in sales in 2H03. As such, NVLS' Q2 mid-quarter update should shed more light on the sluggish demand picture in the semi cap equipment space. A reaffirmation of Q2 guidance should provide evidence that business conditions, if anything, are not getting any worse. Readers should visit Briefing.com's Events page for the time and webcast information, and watch the In-Play page for updates on the call. --Heather Smith, Briefing.com 10:16AM Novellus: Lehman remains cautious ahead of mid-qtr call (NVLS) 30.77 -0.25: Co is scheduled to host a mid-qtr call after the close tomorrow. Lehman expects management to maintain guidance. However, with stock trading at 5.1x sales, 2.3x book, and 124x firm's CY03 EPS estimate coupled with the equipment industry's very limited visibility, Lehman remains cautious on Novellus shares. 11:48AM Altera moves to new 52-wk high (ALTR) 19.45 +0.13: Stock is clearing its previous one-year high of $19.34 established yesterday. 9:49AM Short-Squeeze Alert -- QLogic (QLGC) 48.00 +0.20: Stock is making a test of its $48.00 one-year high set May 13. A break of this level could very well trigger short-covering action in this name. Short-interest represents approx. 13% of the float. 9:36AM Intersil target goes to $26 at Legg Mason (ISIL) 23.71 +0.83: 8:51AM ATI chosen by largest motherboard co's for its integrated graphics chipset (ATYT) 6.53: The Economic News in Taiwan reports Asustek, Gigabyte and Microstar International, which are the largest manufacturers of motherboards in Taiwan, will all use integrated graphic chipsets from ATI with the Radeon 9200 graphics core. This is a negative for NVDA given the co's lack of a bus license for both the Pentium 4 and Pentium-M. The bus license provides the ability to connect to Intel's microprocessor. A Sterling analyst remains bullish on ATYT's prospects this morning in light of this announcement. Rambus (RMBS) 17.55 +1.11: Announced that the United States District Court for the Northern District of California has dismissed the consolidated amended complaint in a shareholder suit against Rambus entitled "In re: Rambus, Inc. Securities Litigation." Broadcom (BRCM) 23.05 -0.67: Stock was cut to Hold from Buy at AG Edwards based on valuation. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+ATYT+BRCM+CY+INTC+ISIL+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+QLGC+RMBS+TER+TXN+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+^STI.O+SMH&d=t