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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (39589)	5/28/2003 3:41:21 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69873

By:madtrader Wed May 28, 12:10pm PDT ORCL High volume breakout here. long ORCL. By:madtrader Wed May 28, 12:07pm PDT market I am going to blow out of my short position here. It sure doesn't look like the bulls want to give up any dips. The pullbacks have been shallow at best. covered QQQ shorts. Register for our newsletter By:madtrader Wed May 28, 11:28am PDT $DXC The Dollar, unlike bonds has yet to conclusively turn around here. I pointed out last week after George Soros told the whole world he was short the Greenback was really an attempt to sucker in the little guys so he can exit. I have little doubt this will indeed be the case. Knowing Soros trade history, he is very unlikely to be in tail end of a trend. The touting of his position certainly raises ethical debates. But it is also a loud advertisement to the end of Euros fantastic run. none. By:RumorDude Wed May 28, 10:39am PDT $SPX.X A week ago I purchased some May 950 puts. (I would relaly have preferred to sell the 950 call, but these eat up buying power like nothing in the world). Anyway, My general thought is that 950 is the top on the SPX for the shorter term. Given that, and given that we're running and I have several long positions, I would like to hedge against them a bit. I bought the 950 which was deeply in the money to try and eliminate some of the time premium since i was going out further. That is, if you are clearly wrong with at the money puts, the percentage of money vaporization is very fast. Remember, you've always got to think of the value at expiration. Here, even though the market has rallied nearly 30 points, this option has lost only about 15 points of price since there is still time there. So again, here would be a nice place to sell the calls if you think the market is going to drop, or buy in the money puts. If you buy the out of th emoney puts, be very gentle -- if the market runs you will lose your money very fast, especially since the volatility (VIX) will drop as well. Here, if the volatility increases on a small drop even, the value of the put should theoretically go up. none By:RumorDude Wed May 28, 10:34am PDT QQQ While I liked the volume on the move yesterday, this is coming into a previous top at 30 and I expect a decent pullback (along with the MSFT side of the world as well). Buy to open Aug 30 QQQ puts. By:RumorDude Wed May 28, 10:33am PDT MSFT MSFT really seems to be having a tough time with that 25 level, and as a big component of the QQQ and my general bearishness at this particular time, there are more trades to be done here... Sell to close Jul 25 MSFT calls, Buy to open Aug 22.5 MSFT puts. By:RumorDude Wed May 28, 10:23am PDT FFIV Now here is a fun trade and is one of the reasons why I like options oh so much (and i like FFIV too but that's another story). The following trade first takes some nice profits. But then we do some clever stuff -- sell some stock with an effective price of 18.5 or so, and maintain further upside potential (with the long 17.5's). The downside here would be anything under 15, where I believe the support on the stock is. Sell to close Jun 15 FFIV calls. Long FFIV. Sell to open Jul 15 FFIV calls (covered). (Still long Jul 17.5 FFIV calls). By:madtrader Wed May 28, 10:15am PDT MSFT Bear flag? Sure looks like it. Will this be a sucker short or will it drag everything down with it? I will wait until it prints 24 or lower. none. By:RumorDude Wed May 28, 10:02am PDT ASKJ This is a real monster here. Shoulud be some resistance aroudn 15, but after that 20 and 30's. I was reading an article about the 200 DMA at thestreet.com the other day which i think is interesting here. My interpretation of the basic hypothesis was to look at the current price as a percentage difference from the 200 day. And, typically the further away, the more likely there is a move towards wherever it is. In other words, "stocks eventually move to their averages". And this is about 200% away, not the 20% if i recall correctly. Buy to open Jul 12.5 ASKJ puts. By:RumorDude Wed May 28, 9:56am PDT YHOO Taking some profits here as it bumps to new 52wk highs. Just looking for a little pullback for re-entry Sell to close Oct 27.5 YHOO calls. By:RumorDude Wed May 28, 9:50am PDT LEXR SNDK Wow, These things just keep going. I see them getting very strong towards the upcoming holiday season (especially LEXR of course) but ultimately these guys need to pull back before I can reenter. LEXR is just about at it's previous high so while i left a bit on the table, i am still happy with the trade of yesterday. none By:madtrader Wed May 28, 9:21am PDT $COMPX Using May 14th peak and May 21st low as reference points, COMPX is right near the 127% Fibonacci upside projection level. A typical area to reverse. I am going to add a bit to my QQQ shorts here. short QQQ. By:madtrader Wed May 28, 9:10am PDT Chartcraft The Chartcraft numbers came out showing bulls dropped and bears increased a bit. But the bulls are still much higher than the bears. I know a lot of bears have been using this figure to argue their case. Had you use this "indicator" to trade in the past 6 months, you would have lost your shirt. Which is why I keep pounding the table to stick with the basics. Price and volume, everything else is secondary. none.

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