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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3433)	5/29/2003 10:00:53 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3813

I agree with your premise. I also agree that Bio is too hard to figure out... especially since the big gains are more from hope where money making can still be years away. Bio reminds me of the wireless bubbles of past years that would move upward explosively then settle back to Earth. I just started to subscribe to tech magazines again to try to get a better handle on some of the issues. One article I have "Choosing chip technologies" talks about SOICs, ASICs and FPGAs. "Funny" how it left off PLDs but the company the writer works for sells ASICs so they made the comparisons easier. I ask myself "If chips are dirt cheap, who will make money?" I think the trend is to move design to low cost providers such as Asia or do what Maxim does and have design centers all over the World so the top Analog guys can live where they want. The common thing between a $120K a year designer at Maxim and 6 $20K a year designers in China is they EACH need a $50K to $100K per year license to run software like Cadence to design the chips. If the trend is to move the $120K chip designer jobs (probably much more with all benefits accounted for including high CA unemployment insurance) from Agilent (started long ago when I was there in 1998) to Asia, then the thing that will increase is more design licenses. Is there any competition to Cadence for Analog design stations? Kirk

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3433)	5/29/2003 8:32:10 PM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3813

The economy is a world economy and the lowest cost factors of production have been and will continue to be sought out world wide. Jobs don't come back. The trade off is lower costs of goods. Agreed. We have seen very healthy "deflation" in tech for along while and it will definitely continue. Inflation and deflation are a danger if they lead to instability. From an historical perspective, I differ with your conclusions here. The most analogous historical reference to deflation was likely before both of us born were born. That being the case, stability is in the eyes of the beholder IMHO, particularly if you are using the term "deflation" as defined by most economists - perhaps you are not because a sector does not suffer deflation. Stable long term inflation has not been a danger and stable long term deflation, if it happens, need not be. I agree....need not be, but if you carry out deflation to its logical extension, the possible burst of the real estate bubble in the face of continued export of jobs could be quite a shock to the American public. While I am absolutely not saying my crystal ball is crystal clear, I am wondering if: (a) you see the job loss I see; and (b) if so, how this job loss might portend to real estate values? If many of the high paying jobs Americans have grown accustomed to are no longer present and accounted migrate to China, India, Poland et al., how do homeowners in Sunnyvale, Austin, and similar such cities prop up their property values? I would like someone to correct me because maybe I am just missing something here. How can property values to even hold firm when the white collar job flight - see todays WSJ from what I heard on this same topic midday EST on CNBC, for example - won't be coming back? And if that is the case, how can consumer confidence be maintained when the over leveraged, credit over extended American consumer who paid $100k, $400k, $800k, etc., for their homes see deflation for what it classically defined as? Bull markets are not equal in psychology to bear markets, and I suspect inflationary environments may not equate to their deflation counterparts because of fear. I believe that the strength of the US economy is in the free markets and free political and legal institutions that promote individual eterprise and entrepreneurship. While these freedoms vary slightly over time, the tradition is very strong in law and in fact and will remain a source of US strength. I absolutely agree. Eventual steady state will occur....and most quickly and stably here because of the very strengths you recited. Nonetheless, there is no reason to assume the transition will be orderly or considerable short and painless. The depression of the 1930s was neither orderly nor short and painless. Please note that I am absolutely not representing, even in my current occasional, semi-deflated state, that a depression or something of the magnitude of what transpired in the 1930 is what we shall see, but am merely using this as a tool to depict a time of significant upheaval in our history. Ultimately, I believe that real estate market will need to correct along with American wages to eventually allow real growth in the States to return. This can be a short, sharp shot or a gurglingly slow 10 year process, I suppose....hopefully I am totally wrong. Feel free to pick on any or all of my ramblings.