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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (129409)	5/29/2003 11:26:36 AM
From: mozek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

I don't know enough about UWB to believe it will dominate the PAN, but from what I do know about it, that could be a possibility. I definitely believe that either we'll get something a lot better than Bluetooth or we will not get scenarios people would really want in the near future. For now, Bluetooth does suffice for voice (poorly-adequately), human input device (HID) cable replacement, and non-real-time image transfer/data synchronization. As far as OFDM, it seems clear that it will dominate the LAN and likely augment the MAN, but I am extremely skeptical that it will dominate the MAN. In fact, I believe there will be bubble-like overinvestment in OFDM for the MAN and some of those investors will get severely burned. If CDMA can deliver >=500Kbps to data devices within the next 2-3 years, I think OFDM for the MAN is burnt toast. CDMA seems to be the best and most likely solution for WWAN worldwide. I still think it will be battling GSM and GPRS, especially in Europe, until killer apps/services skew the economics too much and knock out the viability of WAN alternatives, but that last development is not guaranteed and could take a while. Net net, I believe there is a HUGE market for CDMA for some time to come. That should at least translate into reasonable growth for Qualcomm over the next few years, likely better than that. At some point, it seems the analysts have to start accepting that, but they have already resisted based on faulty assumptions for longer than I thought possible. In some way, I believe the real and touted potential for CDMA has predisposed the analysts and investment community to being overly skeptical about Q's prospects. Mike