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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (23172)	5/29/2003 9:43:12 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206085

Jim - All the technology was there for 52 weeks in 2002 where we averaged 700~ ng directed rigs in USA and production dropped by 5%+. All the reports I have seen are that as the rig count rises productivity from each incremental rig decreases. So we have been seeing flush production from a very high low level in the cycle and it did not stave of the decline in production. Does production flow from wells easier when the system is at record low storage levels? I am assuming that pipeline pressures and storage areas are at very low pressures. In 2000 1000+ NG directed rigs managed to eek out maybe a 1% gain year over year. At today's 850+ NG directed rigs minus Ladyfern and roughly 4 bcfpd less production from Q2 2001 I am not worried much about supply. Demand you say? You invest in a sector that has built all the new NG fired generators and another sector you are familiar with built all the big homes that need to be heated and powered. Also I am sure the estimated 2.5 bcf in demand recently destroyed is just waiting to return as prices decline. I agree that the market will discount the cycle rolling over even if it anticipates it incorrectly. When this will occur I do not know. But barring a cold Summer, a recession and a mild Winter, I dont think we will see supply getting ahead of demand before November 2004. wtrg.com