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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4591)	5/30/2003 4:09:42 AM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

*a problem with non production of even such a simple thing as a commodity appears. what is a commodity? It could be orange juice, steel, or rayon. steel is not simple, nor is orange juice. steel is every single fabric made of steel and all its alloys, and grades. specialty steels and metal products feed whole industries that make them, use them, and develop them. orange juice, is an economy of sectors of florida, and all its community. it is the distribution network, and the means of distribution, from stainless trucks to refrigerators. Lettuce in california led to efficient mobile refrigeration technology, and the need for good rail access to major centers. It all co-exists. You cannot say, "we won't do this part of the scheme". the scheme of industry all interlocks and interrelates. If you look at it non synergistically, it can be compartmentalized and you would think parts can be safely removed. but industry is an organic, self feeding complementary beast. you cannot do major surgery on it "idealistically", without killing the whole beast. we see political thinking about changing economies to suit ideals. economies and what make them tick are wholistic byzantine affairs. if we say we will change them, we must know down the road what the total effect is. what i observe is that the richest economies try to do as much manufacturing as they can possible do. And in addition they make maximum use out of what resources they have. In Germany they mined low grade sulfide ore for steel at rammelsberg. Anywhere else it would have made no sense. but they made telescopes, mercedez benzes, solingen knives and many other things with that low grade ore. I think they did alright. It isn't just the making of a thing that is important, it is the making of the things to make the thing that grows the industry. Canada did mining, but they also made all their mining equipment, and all their reagants, and made many things with the metals they mined. People were busy, and I did not notice we were living in a cesspool. Cities, blacktops roads and farms do far more harm to nature than mines do.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4591)	5/30/2003 9:25:53 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Real unemployment rate worse than 6% Statisticians skip over frustrated job seekers May 30, 2003 BY ADAM GELLER ASSOCIATED PRESS NEW YORK -- The nation's unemployment rate has edged up to 6 percent while Michigan's is 6.6 percent, but frustrated job seekers, shoulder-to-shoulder with so many others who recently lost work, are convinced the numbers miss something. They're right, experts say. The national unemployment figure, based on the government's monthly survey of 55,000 households, counts only those people who have made an effort to look for a job in the last four weeks. It does not count the substantial number of Americans who have gone back to school because they can't find a job or those who have taken a part-time job for much less pay. It does not include people who, unable to find work, have set themselves up in their own businesses, many as home-based consultants. And it does not count people who have become so demoralized that they've just given up looking. If all those people were included, economists and the Labor Department's own figures say, the figure would be about 10 percent of the workforce. "Right now the unemployment rate isn't telling the full story," said Jared Bernstein, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based research group. Economists don't dispute the way the government collects data. They say the household survey is careful and accurate, but that it defines unemployment so narrowly it is easy to misinterpret. For example, in April, the last month for which the government released data, 8.8 million people were counted as unemployed. That figure did not include 4.8 million people who work part time but want a full-time job, up about 600,000 from the previous year. In addition, the survey found another 1.4 million people who want to work are available and have looked for a job in the last year. But because they haven't looked in the last four weeks, they weren't counted as unemployed. That group includes about 437,000 people deemed discouraged -- those who have given up looking. That figure is up from 320,000 a year ago. According to the government's formula, if people lose a job and just give up looking "then you just disappear altogether. You're not in the labor force anymore," said Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist with Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa. The government does publish a broader alternative unemployment rate, albeit one that gets limited attention. In April, that figure, which is not seasonally adjusted, was 9.8 percent, down from a high of 11 percent in January. That compares to a recent low of 6.3 percent in October of 2000, when the traditional unemployment rate stood at 3.9 percent. The growth in the population of those who are available to work but not working or looking reflects the current economy but also points to long-term trends, economists say. freep.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4591)	5/30/2003 9:29:22 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Personal Income Flat, Spending Down Friday May 30, 9:00 am ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending dipped slightly in April, the government said on Friday in a report highlighting the tepid growth pace of the U.S. economy. The Commerce Department said personal spending fell by 0.1 percent after an upwardly revised 0.8 percent gain in March. Personal income was unchanged in April, the first time since July 2002 that incomes have not posted a monthly gain. The report renews worries that consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, may be faltering. Robust spending, along with a vibrant housing market, have been among the economy's few areas of strength. Wall Street analysts had expected incomes to post a flat reading in the month, and spending to have gained 0.1 percent. The report also showed data that could stoke concerns about deflation, a general fall in prices usually accompanied by a severe slide in economic activity. The price index for personal spending, an inflation measure closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, fell by 0.2 percent in April. That was the largest decline since September 2001, when it slid by 0.5 percent. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the index was up 0.1 percent. "We are starting the second quarter on a weak footing in terms of consumer spending, which may begin to erode the estimates for second quarter (gross domestic product) growth," said Pierre Ellis, senior international economist. "The erosion of the growth outlook is a very serious matter for the Fed because it implies greater and greater slack in the economy which exerts increasing downward force on inflation and threatens deflation sooner than had been imagined," he said. In recent weeks, Fed officials have sought to soothe deflation fears by saying they are on guard against it, and that the risk the United States could see deflation is remote. Elsewhere in the report, the personal saving rate -- the percentage of income left over after expenses -- rose to 3.7 percent from 3.5 percent in March. biz.yahoo.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4591)	5/30/2003 9:37:26 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

This one just won't go away Jim...the manana economists will have to work overtime to spin this one:) Study says real US deficit is 44 trillion dollars Thu May 29, 6:14 PM ET WASHINGTON (AFP) - A study applying rigorous accounting standards to the US budget suggests that the true fiscal deficit -- counting long-term pension and health care liabilities -- is a whopping 44 trillion dollars. The study by economists Jagadeesh Gokhale of the American Enterprise (news - web sites) Institute (AEI) and Kent Smetters of the University of Pennsylvania, found the fiscal imbalance includes seven trillion dollars for Social Security (news - web sites) retirement costs and 38 trillion dollars for the Medicare health program for the elderly. The forecast, released by the AEI Thursday, uses a more rigorous accounting method than that used by the government, counting all liabilities even beyond the 75-year time frame used for budget forecasts. The study concluded that to correct the imbalance, wage taxes would have to be hiked 16.7 percent or personal income taxes by 69.3 percent. The study was disclosed Thursday by London's Financial Times, which said the US government shelved the report in the midst of seeking a 10-year, 350-billion dollar tax cut, which was passed by Congress last week. President George W. Bush (news - web sites)'s administration chose to keep the findings -- commissioned by then-Treasury secretary Paul O'Neill -- out of the 2004 annual budget report, published in February, the daily reported. Senator Bob Graham, a Florida Democrat and presidential hopeful in 2004, called the deficit projection "a staggering figure" and said it was "a great disservice" to withhold the report ahead of last week's vote on tax cuts. Graham said lawmakers might not have voted the same way if they had seen the figures. "If people in the Congress were faced with the reality of how serious our financial condition is ... it should have changed minds," Graham said in a conference call. "It's irresponsible to be adding to a project deficit which ... will exceed 44 trillion dollars." According to the Financial Times, the two economists believed the report was for inclusion in official budget documents. "When we were conducting the study, my impression was that it was slated to appear (in the budget). At some point, the momentum builds and you think everything is a go, and then the decision came down that we weren't part of the prospective budget," Gokhale was quoted a saying in the front-page article. The latest study adds a fresh perspective to the problem of the baby-boom generation, which is nearing retirement age. Because the government pays pensions and health care from current revenues, it is incurring a huge long-term liability for the 71 million baby-boomers who will retire over the next 30 years, with fewer workers to pay these costs. In February, Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) warned that the aging of the US population could have important effects on the budget if no reforms are made to the pension and health care programs. story.news.yahoo.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4591)	5/30/2003 9:42:19 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5423

Dollar to hit 76 cents (U.S.), CIBC says By SAHM ADRANGI Globe and Mail Update Investors should expect the loonie to climb as high as 76 cents (U.S.) by the end of the year, in response to a continued depreciation of the U.S. greenback, a Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce report says. "It's too soon to close the chapter on U.S. dollar depreciation," Avery Shenfeld, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets, said in a statement. The Monthly FX Outlook report forecasts a weaker greenback on the grounds that the Bush administration is "welcoming the boost to American trade prospects from a cheaper currency." The burgeoning U.S. current account deficit and cuts in both taxes and interest rates should also contribute to the drop, the report says. Since January, the loonie has risen from 63.81 cents (U.S.) to 74 cents in early May. As of 3:23 p.m. EDT, the dollar traded at 72.86 cents. Over the same period, the greenback has dropped to .84 euros from .96 euros. While the loonie has stalled over the past week, dropping from 74.04 cents last Thursday, Mr. Shenfeld expects it to recover and surpass its previous early-May year-high. Currency analysts have been carefully monitoring the words of U.S. Treasury Secretary, who in a recent comments suggested the United States has abandoned a strong dollar policy. At a meeting of finance ministers, John Snow downplayed the greenback's recent fall as a "fairly modest realignment of currencies." According to CIBC, the dollar's slide against the euro has been more steep than its decline relative to a weighted basket of currencies, partly because several of its non-European trading partners — particularly China and Japan — have intervened to prevent their own currencies from appreciating. Accordingly, the greenback may yet have room to depreciate against those currencies. On the Canadian end, the report expects the Bank of Canada to stand pat in the near term. With Canadian interest rates higher than those south of the border, capital should continue to flow up from the United States. With Europe considering its own rate cuts, Canada may soon also begin stealing capital away from across the Atlantic. For exporters and manufacturers, the higher dollar could make cut into profits, reducing foreign demand for Canadian-made goods and increasing domestic demand for foreign ones. For many of these companies, "paying their wages in 63-cent Canadian dollars" was a lot easier, Mr. Shenfeld says. Earlier today, Statistics Canada reported the highest current account surplus in seven quarters, a further testament to the strength of the loonie. globeandmail.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4591)	5/30/2003 9:44:13 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Japan conducts record currency intervention By David Ibison in Tokyo Published: May 30 2003 13:07 The Bank of Japan conducted its largest ever monthly intervention in the foreign exchange markets in May, using Y3,900bn to ensure the yen did not strengthen beyond Y115 to the dollar and snap off any chance of an economic recovery before it had even begun. The central bank's yen selling binge outstrips the Y3,210bn used to weaken the yen in September 2001 and highlights the depth of official concern in Japan at the domestic implications of a stronger yen. The action moved the yen from a high of Y115 to the dollar to around Y119, but will fuel accusations from US manufacturers and that it is artificially manipulating exchange rates to benefit Japanese exporters. Currency interventions For a timeline and articles covering recent interventions by central banks Click here The record intervention is also likely to ignite debate at the Group of Eight meeting of industrialised nations in France, which is being held as attention focuses on whether or not the US has softened its strong dollar policy. In his last public comments before leaving for France, Junichiro Koizumi, Japan's prime minister, said he believed economic fundamentals indicated that the yen should be weaker. "Given the current state of Japan's economy, Japan's currency should be weaker," he said. It is understood Mr Koizumi plans to bring up the issue of currency movements at the G8 meeting in Evian, pointing out Japan will be unable to recover economically if the yen strengthens too far. It is also understood that he will highlight the effects of continued economic weakness in Japan on the global economy. The record intervention sends out a strong message that Toshihiko Fukui, governor of the Bank of Japan, is resolved to maintain the yen at around Y119 and wil not shy away from committing to the market to ensure this stays the case. news.ft.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4591)	5/30/2003 9:48:37 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Jobless data fuel fears of Japanese recession By Barney Jopson in Tokyo Published: May 30 2003 10:08 The number of unemployed in Japan remained just below an all-time high and goods prices fell for a 43rd consecutive month in April, reinforcing the impression that Japan's economy may be drifting back toward recession. Unemployed stayed at 5.4 per cent for a second consecutive month, just below the high of 5.5 per cent it hit in December and January. The number of unemployed increased 100,000 to 3.9m while the number of people in work fell 270,000. Economists were divided on the state of the labour market. Takuji Aida, fixed income analyst at Merrill Lynch, said that while the labour market remained tough there were no signs of sharp growth in unemployment, as restructuring seemed to have run its course and corporate earnings were increasing. However, Seiji Adachi, economist at Credit Suisse First Boston, said that employment conditions were deteriorating as more women were entering the market to look for work to supplement their husbands' falling incomes. The lack of positive news strengthened the argument that Japan's economy may be heading from minimal growth back into recession. GDP figures released earlier this month showed Japan's economy did not grow at all in the three months to March. This followed a gradual slowing of growth in the previous three quarters, and led many economists to say that if exports continue to soften the economy could shrink this quarter. The figures also demonstrated that companies are giving themselves more flexibility in recruitment to cut costs. The number of full-time jobs sank for the 21st consecutive month while part-time jobs, which companies use to adjust staff numbers to meet demand, increased for the 16th month in row. The ratio of jobs to applicants remained unchanged from the previous month, with 60 jobs available for every 100 job-seekers. Separate data released on Friday showed Japan's consumer price index down 0.4 per cent in April from a year earlier, the 43rd straight month of decline. It was the smallest fall in two and a half years but this was due to a government-mandated increase in the prices of some medical services. If medical prices had remained unchanged, prices would have been down 0.6 per cent, the same as in March, economists said. The consumer price index is one of two closely-watched measures of deflation. The second, included in Japan's GDP figures, is released quarterly, and for the three months to March showed the largest drop ever, a fall of 3.5 per cent. A government report released on Friday spelt out how deflation is hurting Japanese people by putting downward pressure on household income, increasing redundancies and ramping-up the burden of mortgage loan repayments for borrowers. Young people in particular are suffering, the report said, as they are unable to attain financial independence in the current environment, or make plans for the future. news.ft.com