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To: Shack who wrote (74945)	5/30/2003 3:10:54 PM
From: SwampDogg	Respond to of 209892

The debt argument is what keeps me sober unfortunately. There is no escaping the fact that the massive amounts of corporate debt must be turned into equity and that current equity will be heavily diluted or worthless in many cases. The argument about the ability of the Fed to fix everything by printing money is flawed. Easier money and excess credit does not fix the problem of too much debt just as more booze does not cure an alcoholic. The only fix is higher employment, better wages, and LESS spending. The last two are not good for corporate earnings. The Fed may be successful in making a dollar worth less but until companies and workers earn more and save more the future is bleak. The very fact that the market sees consumer spending as a good thing is the central problem. Any break of the DOW Dec high and we should do a 38% retracement of the entire decline since 2000. I doubt that we get the break but if we do it will produce an even better shorting opp. Great post...

To: Shack who wrote (74945)	5/30/2003 3:29:53 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

There is very little evidence that the business cycle is picking up right now. The endless circle of hope is what the bear feeds upon. It's good to see the circle is still intact. Anyone involved in business knows the reality. Anyone listening to CNBS knows the myths.

To: Shack who wrote (74945)	5/31/2003 1:57:30 AM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 209892

"...and liquidity will dry up" Liquidity isn't the problem is it? AG has seen to that. Businesses don't have good reasons to invest, due to relentless competition, poor profit margins, excess supply versus demand, in addition to already high debt loads. What do they need more money for, other than debt service, even though it is probably available. Consumers are probably slowly, albeit ever so slowly getting into the same boat, with high debt, lack of forward motion in both the job/wage front. This is the jobless recovery, and I suspect incomes plus bennies could be falling. Have not seen statistics on that. Maybe Sir Alan (not AG) could let me know if my understanding of economics is as bad as my EW. I had fun with my Poulan today. Pretended I was giving Sir Alan a hair cut. Knicked his ears a few times. Covered up the knicks with ass wipe (clean it was). Some of us poor dumb sots have a fall back approach - we know if we stay wrong long enough we will eventually be right. Now if you are even dumber than dumb, you don't even have a chance to get fully screwed ..... and I'll stop there. A very interesting dollar chart sent to me by a cyber friend, I believe compliments of Louis Lambrecht. Are we in a Big Mother 'C'? Us gold doinks like this baby. lvlamb.itgo.com