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To: ALTERN8 who wrote (5688)	5/30/2003 7:54:33 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 13403

OT I would never argue with a Bear Stearns analyst.

To: ALTERN8 who wrote (5688)	5/30/2003 8:26:22 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 13403

By the year 2010 the estimated market for SDARS subs is just under 50 Million people 50 million people at $150/yr in revenue makes a 7.5 B market. That assumes a market penetration of what, about 15% of the American population? That doesn't seem farfetched. To me the main issues are whether it can survive until then without more dilution of equity and how many competitors there may be to share in the expected bounty. Seeing how the FCC has mismanaged the competitive entry issue in other arenas does not make me particularly optimistic. I am not arguing with your premise at all. In fact, I think it makes an interesting speculation for those who are quick on the trigger and for those with lots of patience. I would still be curious about your opinion of Tivo, which faces a somewhat similar challenge. Sam