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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (99649)5/31/2003 9:13:08 AM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Nadine,
RE: WMDs There is a local radio show here in NYC which has on top notch guests and reporters from around the world. The moderator has come to the conclusion that many of the WMDs are the in the Bekka Valley in lebanon. I think he got this info or has this belief in talks with a guy named John Loftus.sp?? I have been in withdrawl on fp talk shows and picked this up yesterday but I had heard this a few weeks ago on the same show. Does anyone know Loftus or have info on Bekka Valley. Mike



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (99649)5/31/2003 9:41:13 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Sharon Has a Map. Can He Redraw It?
By DAVID K. SHIPLER - NEW YORK TIMES

CHEVY CHASE, Md. - On a July day in 1979, a jeep bearing Israel's agriculture minister, Ariel Sharon, raced up a steep road to the West Bank settlement of Elon Moreh, where devout Jewish nationalists were explaining to me how Genesis contained their ancient ancestors' deed to this land from God.

Mr. Sharon had come to visit the settlers, but he ignored them once he discovered the brand new Jerusalem bureau chief of The New York Times , ripe for a lesson on Israeli security. While the settlers waved the Bible, Mr. Sharon pulled out a military map, which he unrolled on the hood of the jeep. It showed the detailed contours and elevations along the spine of hills that divide the eastward plunge to the Jordan River from the westward descent to the Mediterranean.

It was a clear day, so we could see almost the entire sliver of biblical land between the river and the sea. Mr. Sharon wasn't quoting from the Old Testament, however. He was using a general's gift for reading terrain to point out the dry river beds through which enemy armored columns could invade from Jordan, or from Iraq farther to the east, through the hills and onto the coastal plain, Israel's populated heartland. This was the classic Sharon briefing, one he has given many times ? including to a governor of Texas, George W. Bush, during a 1998 helicopter tour. Mr. Sharon will see Mr. Bush in the Middle East again this week, at a summit meeting with the Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, to discuss the road map for peace that Mr. Bush now supports as president.

Whether the conflict can ultimately be solved will depend partly on Israel's willingness to dismantle most settlements in areas of the West Bank and Gaza to be used for a Palestinian state, and that willingness will depend on Israel's sense of security.

To block invasion routes, Mr. Sharon would explain on his tours, the Jewish settlements would be "facts on the ground" holding strategic points throughout Arab territories captured in the 1967 war. By placing civilians in those isolated outposts, scattered among Palestinian towns, he was accused of putting children in front of tanks. But this was a criticism he accepted.

"Security is not only guns and aircraft and tanks," he told me in 1979. "Security first of all is motivation ? motivation to defend a place. If people live in a place, they have the motivation to defend themselves, and the nation has the motivation to defend them. The fact that you are present, that you know every hill, every mountain, every valley, every spring, every cave; the curiosity to know what is on the other side of the hill ? that's security. If you have all the guns and tanks in the world, you cannot do anything if you aren't motivated, if you don't know the area, if you don't feel that it is yours. Yes, I want to put the children before the tanks."

Practically every time we met during my five-year assignment, he would happily recall that first encounter at Elon Moreh, as if to underscore its significance and to make sure that I remembered it too.

What I remembered most was the odd juxtaposition of the Bible and the map, the curious alliance between the religio-nationalist zeal of the settlers and the secular military zeal of the warrior. While the younger settlers reached into ancient history to celebrate the reincarnation of the Jewish state, the older fighter held fast to a single-minded obsession with security. The motives were complementary, not competing, yet they contained different calculations. The settlers were doctrinaire; Ariel Sharon was pragmatic, some would say opportunistic.

He translated the settlers' messianic dreams into brick and mortar. The settlers provided the dogmatic vision, and he, as agriculture minister overseeing land, provided the confiscated plots, the house trailers, the wells, the roads, the hookups to the electric grid. Later, as defense minister and then minister of infrastructure and now prime minister, he would remain their most effective political ally, making the key connection between two features of the Zionist enterprise: the yearning bequeathed by history and the construction of a future.

All the while, though, I wondered if his focus on security would ever lead him to reassess defense needs and redeploy, like the quick-thinking general he once was. Since Jordan now has a peace treaty with Israel and Iraq has been conquered by America, tanks are not about to come through those West Bank valleys.

Last week, as tentative plans were being made for the three-way summit meeting in Aqaba, Jordan, Mr. Sharon stunned his right-wing Likud colleagues by using the forbidden word "occupation," which implies impermanence, to describe Israel's hold over the West Bank and Gaza, where 200,000 Jewish settlers live among 3.5 million Palestinians. "You may not like the word," he told his party members, "but what's happening is occupation. Holding 3.5 million Palestinians is a bad thing for Israel, for the Palestinians and for the Israeli economy."

He also gave the Israeli newspaper Haaretz an updated assessment of Israeli interests. "Eventually there will be a Palestinian state," he declared. "I do not think that we have to rule over another people and run their lives. I do not think that we have the strength for that. It is a very heavy burden on the public, and it raises ethical problems and heavy economic problems." He added, "We will be ready to carry out very painful steps," and he confessed to an inner conflict: "Our whole history is bound up with these places ? Bethlehem, Shiloh, Beit El. And I know that we will have to part with some of these places. . . . As a Jew, this agonizes me. But I have decided to make every effort to reach a settlement. I feel that the rational necessity to reach a settlement is overcoming my feelings." He is 75, he noted, with no further political ambitions.

Mr. Sharon was once described to me as a man with "no moral brakes." His record suggests as much. As commander of the army's infamous Unit 101 in 1953, he replied to a guerrilla attack on Israeli civilians by assaulting a Jordanian border town, Qibya, blowing up 45 houses and killing 69 Arab villagers. He said later that he had no idea that the houses were occupied. As defense minister during the Lebanon war of 1982, he permitted Lebanese Christian militiamen to enter the Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila, where they massacred at least 700, women and children. He said that he had no idea such a thing would happen. An Israeli commission ruled that he should have known and that he bore indirect responsibility. He was forced to resign.

He is known for deftly pretending not to be doing what he is doing, or pretending to be doing what he is not. He took the invasion of Lebanon far beyond where his prime minister, Menachem Begin, thought it would go, by trying to rid the country not only of Palestinian guerrillas but also of Syrian troops, and by trying in vain to install a pro-Western government in Beirut. Now his manipulative skills may be in play as he holds mildly productive meetings aimed at getting Mr. Abbas to crack down on Palestinian groups that breed suicide bombers ? the major current threat to Israelis' security.

Mr. Abbas is just beginning to gather internal political support, and to bolster his moderate posture he will need visible compromises from Mr. Sharon to reduce military roadblocks, searches and assaults. Even if such steps are taken to ease tension, core issues will remain: conflicting claims on Jerusalem and Palestinian demands for the right of return to Arab villages inside Israel ? as well as the Jewish settlements. That a solution requires the chief architect of those settlements to agree to their withdrawal may seem to guarantee failure.

Nevertheless, I keep remembering another conversation with Mr. Sharon, at his ranch in early 1982, when I asked him what would happen to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if, as he had argued, Jordan became the Palestinian state. Ah, he said, then the conflict would be just a border dispute. A border dispute? Would he be willing to change the border? Would he relinquish parts of the West Bank he was so aggressively settling? He smiled impishly. As defense minister, he said reasonably, he could not negotiate a border with me.

I thought, though I wasn't sure, that he meant to leave the impression of a pragmatist who would be willing to cut a deal someday if the time was right, if Israel could be secure. I wonder whether the time is drawing nigh.

David K. Shipler won a Pulitzer Prize as the author of "Arab and Jew: Wounded Spirits in a Promised Land."
nytimes.com



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (99649)6/1/2003 3:30:54 AM
From: KLP  Respond to of 281500
 
Bush: 'We Found' Banned Weapons
President Cites Trailers in Iraq as Proof
washingtonpost.com

By Mike Allen
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, May 31, 2003; Page A01

KRAKOW, Poland, May 30 -- President Bush, citing two trailers that U.S. intelligence agencies have said were probably used as mobile biological weapons labs, said U.S. forces in Iraq have "found the weapons of mass destruction" that were the United States' primary justification for going to war.

In remarks to Polish television at a time of mounting criticism at home and abroad that the more than two-month-old weapons hunt is turning up nothing, Bush said that claims of failure were "wrong." The remarks were released today.

"You remember when [Secretary of State] Colin Powell stood up in front of the world, and he said Iraq has got laboratories, mobile labs to build biological weapons," Bush said in an interview before leaving today on a seven-day trip to Europe and the Middle East. "They're illegal. They're against the United Nations resolutions, and we've so far discovered two.

"And we'll find more weapons as time goes on," Bush said. "But for those who say we haven't found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they're wrong. We found them."

Bush arrived today in Poland, a U.S. ally in the Iraq war and the first stop on his trip. Later he will meet with fellow heads of government in St. Petersburg, Russia's second city, and Evian, a resort city in the French Alps, before presiding over a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas in Jordan.

Bush administration officials have recently been stressing a hunt for "weapons programs" instead of weapons themselves. Among the officials who have hedged their claims in recent public statements is Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, who said this week that deposed president Saddam Hussein may have destroyed all the weapons before the war.

U.S. authorities have to date made no claim of a confirmed finding of an actual nuclear, biological or chemical weapon. In the interview, Bush said weapons had been found, but in elaborating, he mentioned only the trailers, which the CIA has concluded were likely used for production of biological weapons.

The agency reported that no pathogens were found in the two trailers and added that civilian use of the heavy transports, such as water purification or pharmaceutical production, was "unlikely" because of the effort and expense required to make the equipment mobile. Production of biological warfare agents "is the only consistent, logical purpose for these vehicles," the CIA report concluded.

Preparing for Bush's visit to the Middle East, administration officials said they were assembling a team of 24-hour-a-day monitors to mediate between the parties and measure performance in implementing the "road map" peace plan that aims to create a Palestinian state and permanent peace in the region.

Powell said the move stopped short of naming a "major envoy, with constant negotiations." But it would deepen U.S. responsibility in the peacemaking process. Powell, joining Bush aboard Air Force One today, said the head of the U.S.-led team would be chosen soon.

Recounting his February speech to the U.N. Security Council, which included the display of satellite images and the playing of communications intercepts, Powell said that he "went out to the CIA, and I spent four days and four nights going over everything that they had as holdings." Powell said he had access to "a roomful of analysts, the raw documents, the papers."

"Where I put up the cartoons of those biological vans, we didn't just make them up one night," he said. "Those were eyewitness accounts of people who had worked in the program and knew it was going on, multiple accounts.

"I have been through many crises in my career in government and there are always people who come after the fact to say, 'This wasn't presented to you,' or 'This was politicized or this wasn't,' " Powell continued.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said during a brief visit to Warsaw today that he was confident that illegal weapons would be found and urged people to "have a little patience," the Reuters news agency reported.

"The idea that we authorized or made our intelligence agencies invent some piece of evidence is completely absurd," Blair said, referring to news media reports in London that British intelligence officials feel that Blair's office overstated the case in a dossier issued before the war. "Saddam's history of weapons of mass destruction is not some invention of the British security services."

Bush plans to use a speech in Krakow on Saturday to argue anew that the liberation of the people of Iraq was a legitimate cause for war, according to an administration official. He will speak after a solemn visit to the firing squad's "Death Wall" at the site of the Auschwitz concentration camp, and will draw a line from that to modern evil, including to Hussein and terrorists. Bush told Polish television that the visit's purpose is "to remind people that we must confront evil when we find it."

Bush began his sprint through six countries by offering conciliatory words to such traditional allies as France that tried to thwart the war in Iraq. But his aides said he planned to use the trip to continue projecting American might to try to change the world on his terms.

"I understand the attitudes of some, but I refuse to be stopped in my desire to rally the world toward achieving positive results for each individual," Bush told foreign reporters before leaving Washington.

A senior administration official said the theme underpinning the diplomatic tour was, "What does President Bush do with his military victory?" Bush will lay out his answers beginning with the speech in Krakow, where he will call for greater transatlantic cooperation on controlling AIDS, poverty and weapons of mass destruction.

"Together, we can achieve the big objective," he said Thursday in remarks to foreign reporters that the White House released today. "And that is peace and freedom."

From here, Bush heads Saturday afternoon to St. Petersburg for celebrations and a gathering of world leaders on the occasion of that city's 300th anniversary. Then he flies to Evian for the annual meeting of the heads of the Group of Eight industrial powers. There, supporters and opponents of the war in Iraq will try to work out continuing resentments.

© 2003 The Washington Post Company



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (99649)6/8/2003 10:07:02 PM
From: Dayuhan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 

After all, it was hardly as if WMDs was the ONLY reason to go into Iraq, it was just the lowest common denominator reason.

It’s strange how so many people who trumpeted the WMD issue to the skies before the war are now backing away from it.

WMD, whether or not we like to admit it, were the single most important argument for the war. They were important because they were the only factor that could be used to portray Iraq as an immediate threat. That, in turn, was critically important because the only way to sell the war to the American people was to convince them that Iraq was an immediate threat. There were other reasons why the war might have been thought expedient. These reasons sufficient to convince neocons, who need little excuse to go to war, but whether taken individually or in sum, they were only sufficient to demonstrate that war was expedient. That’s not enough for Americans: they would not support the war unless they thought it was necessary. The only way to convince them that it was necessary was to overplay the WMD issue, and that’s what was done. Some people here did the same: I recall a few posts claiming that anything short of immediate war would effectively cede control of the gulf to Saddam. This sort of exaggeration was crude, almost ridiculous, but it was sufficient to convince many who knew no better that Saddam was an imminent threat and that immediate war was necessary.

The real issue, I might as well say now, is not whether Iraq had any WMD, but whether Iraq posed a real and present thteat to the US and the region. Any WMD evidence must be assessed against this criterion.

The next question in the public arena, Steven, will be, did the Bush administration falsify the intel on Iraq OR, was the intelligence on Iraqi WMDs just crummy? even more worrying, if true.

I think it’s less a question of falsifying than of cherrypicking – emphasizing items that supported the pre-ordained conclusion, de-emphasizing items that did not. There was abundant evidence, even before the war, that this was going on; most simply didn’t care to look.

how do we sort out sincere complaints about intel misuse from the anticipatory butt-covering from the intelligence orgs? Seems to me that the complaints in this article fit equally well in either category.

Intelligence operatives don’t cover their butts with public statements. They aren’t accountable to the public, they are accountable to the administration; they risk far more than they could ever gain by this kind of open statement.

I think its fairly clear by now that the threat Saddam posed to the US and the region was considerably and deliberately exaggerated, less by the intelligence services than by their clients. (Many of us pointed this out before the war, but we were shouted down). One effect of this exaggeration will be the reduction in our government’s credibility in any future case involving similar issues. The next time we raise WMD as an issue, there will inevitably be a widespread chorus of “yeah, right”. Of course next time there might really be a threat. Crying “wolf” often seems a good idea in the short run. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it is a good idea.

As I said before, though, all the government has to do to resolve the issue is to release the data on which pre-war WMD conclusions were based. With Saddam gone, there is no reason to keep this stuff secret to protect the sources. Once we see it, we will know if the error was one of duplicity or incompetence, conspiracy or fuckup. Of course the Government won’t let us see it. That, in itself, says a good deal.