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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mannie who wrote (19756)	5/31/2003 6:43:11 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

yen H&S represents imho a longterm bull market resumption many think the yen has been in a long long bear market it has not it has long cycles the last 10 years have seen it fall considerably but the trend is up in the last 20 years the yen traded at 250 (now 118) back in the early 1980's it is hard for the BoJ to stop the huge trade surplus impact on their currency from capital flows their surplus with the USA represents 2.5% of their GDP the BoJ is gonna lose this titanic struggle I believe an attempt at a repair process is underway K-Winter forces the issue, with bankruptcy resolution, repatriation of foreign strong assets, liquidations of those assets, attempts to survive they have a zoided out banking system, from all the hefty mortgages issued against overpriced real estate the same thing is happening in the USA now all these refi's and new mortgages are being made at the top, just like in Japan in the 1980's we dont learn heck, it is a bull market in RE heck, RE is saving the USEcon effing moronic / jim p.s. trouble sleeping, Scooter very hectic stressed out week what with work and a big seminar presentation, with finishing second "Vicious Circle" article in two weeks, with some evening antics with a damsel, and a heavy swim workout sleep is all screwed up oooh, that damsel, she is in my sights now !!!

To: Mannie who wrote (19756)	5/31/2003 8:17:29 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

from spring2002 to now the EURO rose 15% from now to spring2004 the YEN will rise at least 15% that is my call and I stick with it the chart tells me it will be it is written in stone investors tend never to get it right with govts they see a govt succeed in intervention, and conclude that govt intervention will continue to succeed the Bank of Japan is fighting a desperate and losing battle they poured out $34B in good money over a single recent month to stop a yen rise they will lose to the market, which is much bigger the higher figure means increasing difficulty and desperation, not greater guarantee of success round #1 went to the easy target -- EURO defended by a more responsible and wise central bank round #2 will go to the natural next target, where tremendous capital flows are the result of bigtime trade surpluses -- YEN will be defended to the end which is soon money will come out of the EURO soon, but not until we get to 120 or so, maybe 125 then money will look for a new hot corner I think much EURO money will go into gold, but some might actually speculate in to YEN money will find an increasingly difficult heading into EURO, after such a substantial 25% run since late 2001 that is a bigtime bigtime bigtime currency move when it comes to currencies, such large moves occur once per decade unlike tech stocks, which do it three times per year yen will fire toward 105 by the end of this year or perhaps early 2004 the consequences will be much more dire to price inflation the result of the EURO rise was lost attention span to US Stocks by Europeans, and EU Economy hitting the wall (Germany and two other EU nations in recession now) the result of the YEN rise will be arrival of import price inflation which will show up in the CPI then the Fed capping of longterm rates will be very hard indeed probably impossible / jim