Bush's N. Korea Efforts Stymied - Partners Reluctant To Raise Pressure
By Doug Struck
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, June 1, 2003; Page A22
SEOUL -- President Bush's efforts to form a united front to put economic pressure on North Korea are being undercut by misgivings among his Asian partners, despite shows of solidarity at summit meetings last month, according to government officials and analysts.
Bush's talks with South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi produced joint declarations condemning North Korea's nuclear program and threatening "further steps" or "tougher measures" if the North does not relent. But officials here say the talks avoided discussing what those steps might be in order to avoid disagreement.
"It's a general term," said a top South Korean official who was involved in drafting the phrase "further steps" in the joint statement for the Roh visit. "We didn't go into what it meant."
"Coercive measures are not on the table at this time," he said.
Bush administration officials have said they want to pursue both negotiation and pressure to further isolate North Korea. But South Korea and China -- and to a lesser extent Japan -- remain reluctant to squeeze the impoverished country by cutting off its few sources of income with sanctions or a blockade.
"I do not think we have reached such a stage," Roh's senior foreign policy adviser, Ban Ki Moon, said in an interview. Sanctions "will be used only if things deteriorate," a Japanese Foreign Ministry official said.
South Korea's desire to avoid ruffling relations with its northern neighbor was on display shortly after Roh's meeting with Bush. In that meeting, Roh promised that any cooperation with North Korea would advance only "in light of developments on the nuclear issue."
But nine days later, the South Korean government promised to donate 400,000 tons of food to North Korea and to continue with economic projects, including a rail link and an industrial park, in North Korea, with no concessions by the government in Pyongyang on its nuclear stance. The United States was informed about the agreements in advance, Ban said.
"Roh is zigzagging. He says one thing one day and another the next," said Paik Jin Hyun, associate dean at Seoul National University's Graduate School of International Studies.
Talks last month with North Korea were delayed for two days while officials in Seoul demanded an apology for the North's threat of bringing "unimagined catastrophe" upon South Korea. Roh's negotiators received a lengthy written "explanation" of the threat from the North -- but not an apology -- and went ahead with the economic and food aid.
Roh has told supporters that he had to struggle in Washington to keep threats of military action out of the joint statement with Bush. "The U.S. side wanted to use the threat of using 'all options' instead of 'further steps,' " said National Assembly member Song Young Gil, a member of Roh's party.
But Roh's statements of solidarity with Bush brought protests from some of his supporters, who say he is betraying campaign pledges to stand independent of the United States.
If Roh cooperates with Bush on tougher measures against North Korea, "there will be huge, immense resistance from his supporters," said Hyun In Taek, director of the Ilmin International Relations Institute at Korea University. "Roh's agony is that he knows the situation. He can't go back, and he can't go forward."
Japan recently signaled that it is willing to go along with "tougher measures" if the tension with North Korea escalates. But Japan is generally reluctant to undertake actions that undermine its six-decade-long postwar effort to bury its image in Asia as an aggressive power. A major dispute among Koizumi's top aides broke out last week over whether to use the word "pressure" in relation to North Korea.
"Economic sanctions would be difficult," said Masao Okonogi, a professor at Keio University in Tokyo. "If we did impose economic sanctions, North Korea would react."
Koizumi vowed to crack down on North Korea's "illegal" activities in Japan -- allegations include drug smuggling, counterfeiting and illegal technology transfers. But he stopped short of taking action to cut off the flow of money from Korean residents in Japan to North Korea, and he did not endorse sanctions, which North Korea has warned would be "tantamount to war."
"We should give another chance for talking and dialogue, and then make it clear that if they choose to deteriorate the situation, tough sanctions wait for them," said the official at the Foreign Ministry, who asked not to be named.
China, North Korea's main supplier and thus the key to effective economic pressure, has been unusually public in its demand that North Korea not develop nuclear arms. But in meetings last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the new Chinese president, Hu Jintao, said the United States must offer concessions to North Korea, concessions that Bush has rejected as "blackmail."
"They are still insisting we have to try to persuade the United States, as well as North Korea, to compromise," said the top South Korean official. "The question is how."
China is wary of cutting off North Korea's supply lines, fearing that a destabilized government could cause chaos at its long border with North Korea, according to analysts.
China hosted talks in Beijing on April 23 and 24 with U.S. and North Korean officials. The talks went badly after North Korea said it had nuclear weapons ready to test, use or sell, U.S. officials have said.
China has offered to host a second round of talks. But the United States, seeking a unified front, has insisted that Japan and South Korea be included this time. So far, North Korea has not agreed.
Special Correspondent Akiko Yamamoto in Tokyo contributed to this report.
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