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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (129446)	6/1/2003 8:38:26 PM
From: waitwatchwander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

"agreed" must of been a fraudian slip. You are quite right that the performance of QCOM and Qualcomm has a strong history of been uncorrelated. However, you may not be right in stating that QCOM needs to be further discounted. QCOM has already been discounted 80% from it's top which I took to be $160 (or a $120B market cap). At today's price the market cap is just over $25B. Overall, the Nasdaq is down 70% from it's top and the outlook for umts is not quite as rosey as expected. On the positive side, cdma is still the only game in town for 3G WAN. The GSM capacity situation has only been exasperated by GPRS/EDGE. Emerging markets are finally (although slowly) moving towards cdma and the developed markets are on the verge of a huge multimedia replacement cycle. With close to $5B in cash and virtually no debt, Qualcomm is trading at close to 10x cash flow. Oil companies with huge debts, risky exploration activities and commodity prices swinging 200/300 percent over a year trade at 8+x cash flow. In this value oriented market, food businesses with razor thin margins, complex revenue rebates schemes, highly leveraged fixed assets and union locked labour costs trade at 20+ PE's. Qualcomm's PE is around 25. Recently diversified bank and insurance companies with risky (airlines, hotels, real estate, telecom) loan/fixed income portfolios and business models based upon an unproven converged sales process trade at around 2x book value. Qualcomm with QSI scaling down and no value attached to their patent licences trades at 3.7x book. I'm sure you will come up with your own stack of stats to justify your position but I'm convinced that Qualcomm's growth potential has been more than discounted by the market and the real market risk lies in overpriced value stocks and selected cyclical sectors. >>>>> serendipity Elder states it best ... "The feelings of thousands of traders merge into huge psychological tides that move the markets." I agree that an asute understand of that psychology is most key to one's long-term survival. Regards, Trevor