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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (34587)	6/1/2003 6:29:36 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

energyplay, <<threats, to stop buying US Dollars and buy Euros... But thinking about that higher level of complexity makes my head hurt>> We may be trying too diligently, and thinking in too convoluted a fashion. The situation may simply develop to such a state that it is no longer a question of threats and counter-threats, bargains, and wagers, but, to put it succinctly, come down to one mind-focusing question, ‘do the creditor nations choose to commit financial hari-kari alongside the debtor states?’ In other words, will there be a Coalition of the Willing to a economic suicide pact. The simple fact of the anti-matter to the matter of debt is that Japan, supplier of 40% of the world’s credit out of private and business savings is as surely being tapped out as Alaska is in the case of oil Message 18991511 and at some particularly inconvenient point, Sake2Bottles will panic about his fast disappearing factories, and faster absconding savings. Whereas the factories are probably never coming back to Japan, the credits can be … how should I say … panic sold;0) The Chinese Asia creditor nations may at some point recognize that there are better investment opportunities than negative 5% per annum over a 30 period span in some faraway land. The US officialdom thinks it wants to encourage domestic consumption in the Asian USD-zone. They are wrong, because when that particular inflection point is hit, all chaos will erupt in debtor nations, as investment capital and consumption revenue remains at the then common source. If so, the sale of accumulation of years and years worth of capital flow, and the sudden cutoff of new credit, will wreck havoc in the markets from which they are withdrawn. Hong Kong had a foretaste of Japanese capital withdraw in late 1997, coincidentally the peak of our stratosphere high property market. Sell house, rent lodging, sell Dow, buy gold, short tech in awhile, buy creditor currencies in a moment, these are the possible trade-of-the-Script ingredients. Oops, almost forgot, NG, lots of NG, buy the dip, buy the dip again, buy the dip once more. Gold? I love the way the physical gold is now trading; high frequency and low amplitude electromagnetic cooking process; popping the H2O bubbles within the body corporate of weakening non-believers and weaker leverage hands, raising their temperature ... No trader was good enough to trade the current environment with any consistency (of winning), and death invariably follows exhaustion ... Let's see what the near-simultaneous birthing cries of Newmont 'phuck the hedger if they cannot take a joke' Puts, GOLD/GLD ETFs, Chinese gold retail market, Indian gold importation deregulation, and the gold Dinar can do to the underlying trend that is already up:0) Chugs, Jay