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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BubbaFred who wrote (34600)	6/1/2003 11:03:12 AM
From: jrhana	Respond to of 74559

I can ride out 20-25% myself Notquite as bad as buying CMGI at (split adjusted) $160 now $1.40 or INSP at $1,385 (split adjusted 2/1 then 1/10 reverse) now $14.60

To: BubbaFred who wrote (34600)	6/1/2003 1:46:54 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Much of the Commercial boom in the 80's was tax break driven and you certainly don't have projects being built now that make as little real economic sense as you did back then. Sadly, it is the nature of the commercial business to overbuild as many owners [companies and developers] are ego driven and importance of having the name on the building often overrides real need. There are countless examples of projects built because the owner wants the new pretty building more than the alternative, which would be lower rents. So while there is little chance of 80's early 90's redux, that actually depends on how the owners react to rent rollbacks... ie. how deep are their pockets. In the 80's there were no pockets for a lot of properties... sellers sold at best [often needing CASH] price available at the time. I don't know who the predominant owners of commercial are at the moment, although I suspect insurance companies hold jabilliions of mortgages on this stuff. Personally I am not excited about the depth of their pockets... but at least they have some. Residential [single family] is a different story, I don't think it received even a fraction of the tax break money in the 80's that Commercial did, and it can be argued IMO that the current false low rates are creating massive incentive not unlike that of commercial in the 80's. I can easily imagine a much worse scenario in SFamily residential in the near future than what occurred in the 80's. DAK