Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quote 007 who wrote (41064)	6/1/2003 3:00:25 PM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

I wasn't aiming at a single, particular point with that post. It should be taken in light of some of the other things that I have written on this board. But here's what I thought some folks might take away from it: a) Bullish percent is at extremely high levels, but it is still unclear whether this represents market strength or just euphoria. I think that we are beyond market strength and into the euphoric phase. A rise in my computation of bullish percent from here to levels in excess of 45 will set a precedent, which I don't see happening given that we have already seen the end of a tremendous bull market. b) Even though I called a top at the end of April, and have paid for (and learned from) that call, I still think that there is a way to correctly identify tops and bottoms with a useful degree of accuracy. Any sufficiently large oscillator is indistinguishable from a trend to those who aren't looking at a big enough picture. Small and medium oscillators will both hit extremely overbought levels (as mine did) while a larger oscillator is just getting started on its swing upward. My oscillators focus on a few days to several months. Since early 2000 the market has had a broad "trend" downward (the decline of a larger oscillator) but within that "trend" have been numerous significant opportunities to play long and short. These opportunities are what I'm looking for, and I think they will be missed if one only "follows the trend". One of the best cases for disregarding my high bp readings is that they are based on 2-4 month periods, and the 200-day ma for SPX has recently turned upward, and my other oscillators pegged at their maximums at about the time the 200 day ma bottomed. <edit> For the sake of future discussion, we can simply refer to the trend as the current direction of the largest oscillator that one wishes to consider.