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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34617)	6/1/2003 10:28:04 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Boom. Check! Bust. Check! Recovery, not yet. But the descent had stopped! Jay, I don't mean form here is all way up. But we are not going below where we are right now. We are at the very bottom. Perhaps we stay at the bottom for a while until one Abracadabra here, another Abracadabra there, and going this way, pretty the altimeter shows the thing is getting up.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34617)	6/1/2003 10:44:41 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Going down hill and Elmat's slope theory. Examining a photogram of a 1 and 1/2 movie and trying to get the whole plot. This is risky. But if we get enough photograms, say a couple of samples along the whole film, we could certainly tell the plot. The photogram (of the economy) we have at hand now shows a steep down hill. AC Flier has it upside down and think it's uphill. MQ says that with the momentum coming down hill, it will have speed enough to go up the next slope. Elmat says (if you keep in mind what he's been writing here) that if we make smaller and slower cars the majority of them can go down hill as well as up hill in a controlled manner and not wily nily like now with huge high powered cars driven by very bad drivers. Back to the snapshot: we're looking to an snapshot of a steep down hill for the last 12 months. (A warning for you Jay!) The steepness of this descent is a result of the steepness of the uphill we left behind. The steep up hill analogy for the bubble, has its correspondent, steep downhill we are presently in. NOTE: When you eat like an elephant, you Sht like an elephant. (Hey, I'm in Thailand and I saw how much they eat and sht). BUT BOTH -UP AND DOWNHILL- ARE ANOMALIES, Jay! The steep up hill wouldn't last forever, neither do the steep downhill towards a kaboom of Krakatoa's dimensions. We are entering a phase that the descent is slowing down, bottom, stops, starts slowly going up hill. Right now, today, it is dead stopped on the tracks. It no longer goes down below this. Three things point in this direction: 1) Money being printed and doled out 'com gusto' 2) USD growing the way a horse's tail does: down 3) US desperate to export 4) Europeans in desperate need to make structural reforms (perhaps they even let hairdressers open on Saturday afternoons :-) ) 5) Write off's and write downs are everywhere. (Compare that with 2000/2001 when the companies saying: "We have no visibility" or Saying: "This is a 100-year storm that no one could have predicted" and Enron, WCOM and an assorted amount of scandals have been digested. All those great pretenders that went around the globe buying foreign assets are returning back home with their tails in between their legs etc etc...

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34617)	6/1/2003 11:13:30 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

• Pakistan is on the verge of disintegrating. • India, like many other large nations, will break into several countries chapters.indigo.ca Guess I'll have to buy it now. My curiosity is piqued.. EDIT Weather still very cool here. Won't bore you with my homespun weather anecdotes :o) but some of our trusty friends may retreat for a while. Will I get that cheap Vermillion ;o)