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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Londo who wrote (507)	6/1/2003 10:33:02 PM
From: Londo	Respond to of 666

ecb.int Interesting calendar. Looks like the fireworks have already started before the party concludes on June 5th. (Euro futures down 0.0130)

To: Londo who wrote (507)	6/2/2003 8:24:24 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 666

I still think that the EUR rallye is not over. The ECB never thought about interventions even if some traders planted the rumor. The ECB much more said that the companies must adjust and that generally spoken, the EUR price of 1.15, 1.20 is nothing extraordinary (and pointing out that the EUR price of 85USc was part of the dollar bubble). That said, I think that short term the EUR could still go higher (albeit I don't know whether to 1.25, 1.30 or 1.50 vs the dollar). But what we need now is a sort of a catalyst. Otherwise, the technical traders who, combined, sit on large positions must begin to sell into the falling market (they adjust in weekly, monthly and quarterly frequencies). Regarding the timing, I do not expect much over the summer months but after August,... Then a 50bp rate cut would not even reduce the advantage in holding EUR vs USD very much - forward prices already trade for a time there - thus not prompting a mass exit in EUR.