Recruiting for Senate Races Stumbles at Start - Parties Are Vexed by a Lack of Strong Candidates in Some States, and a Surplus in Others
By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, June 2, 2003; Page A09
The Post is doing the best Political reporting, IMO. I usually get two or three stories a day from them.
Two years after a successful effort to round up winning candidates for last year's Senate elections, Republicans are running into some obstacles in recruiting for 2004: a lack of strong contenders in several key states, and too many aspirants in others.
The good news for Republicans is that Democrats appear to have even more acute problems, including the likely retirement of Democratic incumbents in several tossup or GOP-leaning Southern states in addition to recruiting difficulties.
Largely because of opportunities in these open races, Republicans are the early favorites to retain or expand their current 51 to 49 majority in November 2004.
But the contrast with 2002 gives the Democrats at least some hope. Instead of stories about the success of President Bush, Vice President Cheney and others in wooing attractive candidates and averting divisive primaries, the news this year has been about Republican candidates who have spurned high-level entreaties to run in Illinois and Washington state. There are also signs of ideologically wrenching GOP primaries in Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Top Republican leaders "haven't shown their [recruiting] muscle, but what we have here is more normal" for the early stages of Senate campaigns, said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent political analyst. "What was remarkable was what they were able to do two years ago."
Jennifer Duffy, who watches Senate races for the Cook Political Report, says she believes this election cycle is starting later than usual for several reasons, including the soft economy, the war in Iraq and uncertainty about the eventual outcome of legal challenges to the new McCain-Feingold campaign finance law.
Republicans have had some successes this year, such as the early decision by Rep. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to run for the seat held by John Edwards (D-N.C.), who is pursuing the Democratic presidential nomination and might not seek reelection to the Senate regardless of the outcome.
They also believe former representative John Thune (R), who narrowly lost a Senate bid last year, could threaten Senate Democratic leader Thomas A. Daschle in South Dakota.
But more typical was the Republicans' well-publicized but mostly unsuccessful pursuit of major figures such as former Illinois governor Jim Edgar, Rep. Jennifer Dunn (Wash.) and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel R. Martinez, who was urged to run in his home state of Florida.
Nowhere was the disappointment greater than in Illinois, where Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R), viewed as the most vulnerable of all Republican incumbents, decided against seeking a second term. With the White House in the lead, Republicans immediately turned to Edgar. But he declined, as did their second choice, state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, the only Republican in statewide elective office aside from Fitzgerald. That leaves what one GOP official described as a "laundry list" of lesser-known candidates. Republicans probably will have a primary contest but can take solace from the fact that Democrats could wind up with a bloodier one.
Republicans also zeroed in on Dunn to challenge Sen. Patty Murray (D) in Washington state. But Dunn opted to stay in the House. Now they are pinning their hopes on another Republican House member, Rep. George R. Nethercutt, who has not decided whether to run.
Florida has two Republican contenders to succeed Sen. Bob Graham (D), who is also pursuing his party's presidential nomination. They are Rep. Mark Foley and former representative Bill McCollum, who lost a Senate bid in 2000. Dissatisfied with the choice, some GOP recruiters -- reportedly including White House political strategist Karl Rove -- have tried to woo Martinez for the race, so far unsuccessfully.
Republican plans to entice former North Dakota governor Ed Schafer to run against Sen. Byron L. Dorgan (D-N.D.) were dashed when Schafer said no, and no other prominent figure is rushing into the breach.
In California, Rep. Doug Ose (R) declined to challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), although several others are still considering it. They include Rosario Marin, who is stepping down June 30 as U.S. treasurer.
By contrast, Georgia has too much of a good thing. For a time, Rep. Johnny Isakson, who is regarded as a moderate, had the Republican primary all to himself. Then Rep. Mac Collins, a conservative, jumped in, and now Herman Cain, a conservative black entrepreneur who used to run the Godfather's Pizza chain, has joined the fray.
In Pennsylvania, conservative Rep. Pat Toomey is taking on Sen. Arlen Specter in the Republican primary, a right vs. center split that could redound to the benefit of Democrats -- if they had a candidate.
Democrats are also scrambling for candidates in other states, including Georgia, where Sen. Zell Miller (D) is retiring, and Missouri and Colorado, where they believe Sens. Christopher S. Bond and Ben Nighthorse Campbell are vulnerable.
In addition to the likely Democratic retirements in North Carolina and Florida, Sen. Ernest F. Hollings (D-S.C.) has hinted he may step down, and Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) has not said whether he will run again (although Democrats say they are confident he will). Without Hollings and Breaux, both seats would be in jeopardy.
In assessing GOP prospects, Dan Allen, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, noted that most of the GOP's successful 2002 challengers were not formally in the running before summer or fall of the preceding year. Moreover, he said, Democrats have far more seats in play -- with bigger risk of losses -- than the Republicans do.
Brad Woodhouse, Allen's Democratic counterpart, said he believes Republicans' early recruiting record underscores concern about the economy and its impact on the elections. As for the contrast with 2002, he said, "They set a standard in 2002, and they now have [control of] the Senate and House. They should be doing better with the advantages they have."
washingtonpost.com |
