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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (510)	6/3/2003 12:04:17 PM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 1070

Canada can't beat it because Canadian doctors work for the government and take orders from politicians. Chretien is a cretin. China's not beating it, either. There's a new apartment complex outbreak that isn't getting reported. Read this post by Niman on Docbear's SARS blog. Wonder if he's Dr. Henry Niman, a Harvard Medical School instructor who's been studying SARS? agonist.got.net

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (510)	6/3/2003 12:39:32 PM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 1070

>>Topic: The 29 nt Insert in Civets (Read 60 times) niman Member Posts: 13 The 29 nt Insert in Civets « on: June 02, 2003, 05:25:56 AM » Reply with quote Although the full sequence of the 29 nt insert in civets found in at least one market in Guangdong Province have not yet been published, a human sequence, GZ01, is available at Genebank ncbi.nlm.nih.gov query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=nucleotide&list_uids=30910859&dopt=GenBank The molecular consequences strongly suggest that this is the true "wild type" SARS coronavirus. 16/17 SARS coronavirus sequences at at GenBank have the 29 nt deletion. In these isolates there are two open reading frames. ORF 10 encodes a protein of 38 aa, while ORF 11 encodes a protein of 84 aa. When the 29 nt is inserted, the two ORFs are then in-frame with each other and the one ORF encodes a protein of 122 aa. Without the insert, ORF 10 has a membrane anchor, but not much left to anchor. With the insert, the anchor anchors a protein of 122 aa, and the additional info has some homology with the human coronavirus OC43, as well as other class II coronaviruses such as BCoV (Bovine coronavirus), MHV (Mouse Hepatitis Virus), and a related rat coronavirus. There is also limited homology with hepatitis C virus. Thus, the 122 aa protein is somewhat like a mini spike protein and the homologous region may be a convenient immunogenic target that keeps SARS infection under control, until the 29 nt delection decapitates the immunological target so it is no longer attached to the shell of the SARS coronavirus. Logged niman Member Posts: 13 Re: The 29 nt Insert in Civets « Reply #1 on: June 02, 2003, 12:02:40 PM » Reply with quote From today's promed promedmail.org f?p=2400:1001:245374015105450016::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,21767 "[Perhaps the most significant aspect of the above report from Nature is that some animals in other markets or in the wild have tested negative for the SARS coronavirus. So it is possible that the animals in the market in Shenzhen may have been infected from an unknown animal or human source. A potential animal reservoir and the direction of transmission of the virus are still unresolved issues. Dr. Henry L Niman, (Instructor in Surgery (Bioengineering) Harvard Medical School <henry_niman@hms.harvard.edu>) has observed that, irrespective of the biological data, the molecular story remains clear at this time. 16 of the 17 available SARS coronavirus genome sequences have the same 29-nucleotide deletion (the GZ01 sequence being the single exception), whereas the genome sequences of at least 2 civet cats (and the GZ01 sequence) have the same corresponding 29-nucleotide insertion. It is clear, however, that more data are required before the biological relevance of this 29-nucleotide deletion/insertion can be assessed. - Mod.CP]" I think that the molecular story is quite compelling at this time and the 29 nt deletion in 16/17 SARS isolates is quite significant.<< agonist.got.net

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (510)	6/5/2003 5:48:20 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

Cumulative deaths who.int and weekly deaths graphs: x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666] .28 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[745] ..4 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[772] On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxx .28 May xxxxxxxx ..4 June xxx Swarms of people [1,800] still sick but few are dying. If there is a 10% death rate for them, then that will mean 180 of them will die, but the current death rate seems quite low. Only 4 per day. It seems that there might not be 1000 people killed by Sars at this rate. That's a good control of a very fatal epidemic. There's something to be said for living in the modern age. Mqurice