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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34680)	6/3/2003 3:44:36 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

<Happiness is a talkative Bernankaput-Humpty and clueless Greensputin-Dumpty :0)> Jay, I do admit to getting bored part way through Humpty's speech to the Japanese on how to run their money. It all read as I expected it to read way back in 1999 when I was figuring out what would happen when the crunch came. Currencies would be competitively printed, bumping and grinding against each other as you put it. So it has come to pass. Margined irrationally exuberant shareholders would be market-cleared. That was not supposed to include me because Globalstar was not going to be included in the failures and while QUALCOMM could drop to $50, I did NOT expect it to make it all the way to $23 - fortunately, I was ready for such events, being fairly long in the tooth and knowing just how much harm panic in the crowded dance hall can do when somebody shouts "Fire! But we have nothing to fear but fear itself", causing a LOT of people to head for the narrow exits at the whiff of smoke and sight of a small wastepaper basket fire. So far, so good. The script has played out much as I hoped [my hope being that things would not enter the realm of the black hole, beyond the financial event horizon]. Interest rates are way down. Megamillions of money have been pixelated. Markets have cleared a LOT of unstable and unprofitable stuff out of the way. Salary demands of young graduates are more reasonable. Indians who can drive computers are being hired in droves. China is booming still. There was no cascading collapse. Deflation didn't happen [other than some minor discounting in Japan to the tune of 4% to 9% over a few years depending on how it's measured]. Because the process has been quite a bit slower than I guessed, I suppose the recovery and bumping along the bottom will be longer than I guessed too. So, I expect we might not have finally bottomed out. There could yet be another lurch downwards to ensure any undue overly enthusiastic post millennial optimism is extinguished and humanity gets back to their prosaic lives of quiet desperation, worry and perpetual Sisyphian struggle. members.bellatlantic.net Then, the Phoenix will arise yet again. As always. The Taniwha and Dragon will awake. It's now 4 years since I started ranting that it was time for a big crunch to tidy the markets up. I did NOT expect the process to take so long. I thought a year, or two at the most, would see the process finished and the bottom installed in the Dow. But I hadn't realized how out of kilter Biotelecosmictechdot.com had become, nor how dependent on alien money the USA had become. The tidying process was a much bigger one than I had guessed. I still want to see whether GE has hairy legs and high high they are hairy. I want to see interest rates rise again to squeeze the indebted. After that process is underway, I will consider the wash, spin, rinse, spin, dry, cycle complete enough for me to dabble again. GE and some other companies have quite a bit of debt supporting their sales and maybe share price, so I want to see that tested just as I wanted to see margin levels tested. So far, there's no big mayhem [of course there has been major mayhem to the extent of death on an individual basis, but no systemic collapse]. Q333 G364 = I think it was time for traders to switcheroo again last week while I was lazily goofing off for a week in 3D pleasure. Did you ditch some G at the peak? Mqurice