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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (34683)	6/3/2003 3:03:26 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Kastel 's link worked - here's the text - Gas Flows by: robry825 (M/Michigan) 06/03/03 01:41 am Msg: 9309 of 9312 We got a biggie coming. Gas flows for last week were consistent with an injection of 116 BCF, which would be somewhat bearish against the rapidly-evolving baseline (114 BCF injection on 50 degree-days), and the more-important backshifted baseline (111 BCF injection). Flows suggested 72% of operators increased injections over the previous week, 24% decreased injections, and 4% maintained the previous weeks activity. Flows also suggested 98% had net injections for the week, and 2% had net withdrawals. Last week was the perfect week for injecting, as mild air & the Memorial-Day weekend fitted strengthening then weakening of the dailies percisely within the calendar week, giving us what should be the largest build of the spring. NEXT WEEKS EIA REPORT: Following Fridays cut-off for EIA-reporting, the dailies show gas flows again softening (on a small rise in degree-days). Gas flows suggest 33 BCF injected thus far (through Monday evening), puting us on track for a 100'ish BCF build in next weeks EIA report. If NOAA's 49 degree-day forcast holds up, it would imply milder temps for the balance of the week and a larger injection. Both baseline and backshifted baseline under the new steeper-slope assumptions would be a 116 BCF injection. If the gas flows are confirmed by the EIA on Thursday and the gas flows restrengthen again later this week, then at least in the short term probabilities would suggest a flattening and perhaps slight downward-bias (to test demand-reasurection) for natgas cash & futures. It would also imply somewhat increased risk in the markets, especially in the late '03 contracts, as cool summer temps, untested summer conservation, delayed demand-destruction, etc could turn the baseline negative. This looks like a good time to me to get just a little more defensive- to make sure we aren't overextended on margin and have a little cash on hand should a quick opportunity arise. -Robry825