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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (19842)6/3/2003 12:36:18 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 89467
 
stocks are misreading the bond rally
the Fed warns of more dangerous and lingering price deflation
this should scare the hell out of stocks
since it means continuing pricing difficulty and continuing debt defaults (corp and personal)

the Fed will monetize the long bonds, so bonds rally?
but the Fed will monetize and continue to destroy the dollar, which will eventually unleash imported product price inflation

in fact, I expect imported inflation to serve as the Mother of all Wooden Shoes in the Fed money printing machinery
so far, the Fed has seen little nasty effects from their extreme monetary irresponsibilty

many thought in the mid-1990's that the Fed Chairman was a genius, in providing liquidity (credit funny money) to provide economic insurance against worldwide accidents
but we got the 1997 Asian Meltdown, and the 2000 US Stock Bust
next we get the great US TBond and Real Estate slow grind bust
IT WILL BE PRECIPITATED BY THE INEVITABLE ASIAN IMPORTED PRICE INFLATION
when Japanese Yen breaks out, and starts the process


the JYen rise cannot be stopped, not by the US Fed, not by the BoJ
as long as the US treats oversupply with more stimulus to encourage consumption, we will have the trade gap with us in a huge way
and Japan will increasing difficulty in warding off the tide of capital flow

sabotage: from OldFrench SABOT = shoe (tossed into machinery)

/ jim

p.s. CNBC's Liesman is a decent economist
he identifies GreenSpasm's contradictions
DEFLATION or RECOVERY ???
Greeny has only encouraged stock speculation and relief of corporate debt (thus relieving yield spreads)
he calls it the "Greenspam Deflation Dance"

p.p.s. ME: Greeny doesnt realize it, but by talking down longbond yields, he is slowing the economy longterm, thus he is accelerating the pace toward the Liquidity Trap !!!