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Biotech / Medical : Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike who wrote (1601)	6/4/2003 3:01:00 AM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3044

Wouldn't the key here be the penetration of Integrilin in ER settings? I thought that was the main market. Is it peaked there? If so, the increased wholesaler inventories might be a concern -- though they've been known to stock up ahead of anticipated price increases, which would be somewhat less of a concern. If not, the increase might be to meet anticipated growth? MLNM's position has been that ACC guidelines for PCI (revised in 2001, not likely to be changed soon) support Integrilin in that setting, and that overlap with Angiomax is chiefly in elective surgery, supposedly a small part of their market: acc.org Feuerstein did a reasonably balanced piece on all this 6 months ago: thestreet.com The market for GP IIb-IIIa inhibitors is $600 million, and Integrilin seems to have about half. Angiomax might do $100 million this year, and is projected to go to $130 next year, right? Not nearly all of this will come at Integrilin's expense, so it seems to me the erosion will indeed be slow. Both companies have had a nice run. MDCO should be improving its margins, though I think the sales projections are priced in. MLNM should be expanding its Velcade label -- maybe significantly given the early solid tumor data -- and perhaps Integrilin's, too. Both look pretty good over the long term, though a summer breather could be in store for them, too. Folks who wrote calls might consider rolling them out or up. Cheers, Tuck