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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2546)	6/4/2003 2:29:11 PM
From: rsie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

"That last Brinker cyclical bull call (March 11) is lookin' good right now." I am glad I follow Brinker .....Rich PS I have noticed that since he made that call and the market has done what it has ......silence.....

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2546)	6/4/2003 4:19:22 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Respond to of 10065

Wally, I, also would like to hear Justa's thoughts on this extraordinary rally.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2546)	6/4/2003 9:15:57 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 10065

Wally: I am not sure how far this goes in price. Gave up trying to call the top on this thing quite awhile ago. With that said, you are right -- Investors Intelligence is, well, frothy?? I don't think there is any way to paint the sentiment picture other than negative. But these things can persist. What is dangerous can get more dangerous. With that said, my GUESS is that we have a Bradley turn tomorrow and that we will make a short term peak in price within a few days and then sell off into opex max pain only to push to retest the highs in early July. There is a big Bradley turn come early July. I expect from that to sell off into the autumn. FWIW.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2546)	6/5/2003 3:04:39 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Wally, I see even the 4 week moving average which Bob uses is also sitting at 71.60. If we assume his overall sentiment indicator is negative, I think the money supply and economic parts of the model are likely still positive. Valuation may be neutral to high. I suspect the model is still clearly bullish. Anyway I'll shut up about the model for now as the newsletter should be out in a couple of days IMO It's very hard to get negative on stocks when we're in the extraordinary situation of short term bonds and money markets paying real returns of close to nothing and at the same time the Fed has all but pronounced it will do whatever it takes to pre-emptively fight the possibility of deflation even at the cost of some inflation. On top of that we have some fiscal stimulus. It seems valuations should expand as they are doing and further improvement in corporate profits cannot be far away. It will be interesting to see how high bullish sentiment will get before this presumed cyclical bull ends. It gets pretty dicey if we assume we're under the headwind of a secular bear. Marc

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2546)	6/5/2003 10:53:35 AM
From: Lone Ranger	Respond to of 10065

Wally, What's really interesting to me is that Brinker, who in general, disdains TA except for support/resistance levels and positive divergences, was really only one of a couple, besides Jeff, to get this trend change right. Pretty extraordinary imo. That includes some of our resident experts who had been remarkably right during the downtrend but who were not able to call the trend change. To me, that's the key, its relatively simple to trade in a continuous trend, but missing the trend changes and holding on because you think you're right will kill ya<g>.