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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (100230)	6/4/2003 5:52:43 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 281500

What would really be humorous is watching the Nobel committee pass Bush by for a Peace Prize if he pulls this off. Well....if he pulls this off, he will deserve one. I think people keep underestimating Bush. It has been assumed (as recently as last week) that all he would do was pay lip service to trying to start the peace process. JMO....but I think that severly misreads the way Bush looks at the Middle East. He may not succeed but it wont be from a lack of trying. As for the odds on his success, just as the war in Iraq has changed the game in the ME in general, it has also impacted the Palestinian/Israeli situation. This isnt '91 or '99, the US is going to have quite a bit more leverage on Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria than they have had previously. It's these regimes that have profited most from the ongoing conflict. nytimes.com On Camera but Unaware, Bush Displays His Fervor By ELISABETH BUMILLER HARM EL SHEIK, Egypt, June 3 — It was not surprising that President Bush would get tough with the Israelis and Palestinians and demand that both get their houses in order. What was surprising, because of an extraordinary mistake by Egyptian television, was that Mr. Bush would be caught unawares on camera today speaking about the Middle East with more bluntness, emotion and religious fervor than had been heard before. Slacker

To: LindyBill who wrote (100230)	6/4/2003 7:15:30 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I don't see how he can deliver, but it is on his back. Sharon has to pull some trailers down from some outposts. We will see video of angry settlers shaking their fists at Israeli soldiers doing the dirty work. Neither has really given much. Abu Mazen has just re-promised the same stuff that was promised in Oslo, and Sharon has only promised to pull down some outposts that are illegal by Israeli law - nothing about the rest of the settlements. (Can you say bargaining chip?). Of course, the world will expect the Israelis to do what they have promised, while double talk will suffice from the Palestinians. This is called affirmative action in warfare. The words were hardly out of Abu Mazen's mouth when Hamas said, "Cease-fire, hell! We don't agree to no stinkin' cease-fire." Al-Aqsa (=Fatah=Arafat) hasn't agreed either. Be interesting to see what comes next (predictable) and how Bush reacts to it (not so predictable).