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Technology Stocks : Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dave B who wrote (2911)6/4/2003 7:01:39 PM
From: Charles Tutt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4345
 
What about the work of Kenneth Fisher?

Charles Tutt (SM)



To: Dave B who wrote (2911)6/4/2003 10:14:28 PM
From: w0z  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 4345
 
"As opposed to your statement that "P/S is always listed as a key valuation metric", in reality it was rarely listed as a valuation metric before the mid 90s."

Wrong Dave. P/S has been a fundamental metric at least as far back as 1967 at Harvard Business School (I'm dating myself!) It remains so today, especially for highly cyclical businesses like semiconductors, semi equipment, etc. It is one of the first metrics I looked at in considering potential acquisitions. The old rule of thumb was that P/S of <1 was a fairly good deal. Even after HPQ's recent run, today it is at 0.87 versus IBM at 1.74 (oops...I think that is based on yesterday's close, not today's, because the numbers are identical to what I used previously, even though HPQ went up much more than IBM today).

"Let me try it this way. You, Duke and I all own local 7-11s, all with $10M per year in sales. We simultaneously decide to sell our stores. Who's going to get more for their business -- you with $1M/year in profits, Duke with $50K/year in profits, or me with $1M/year in losses? Certainly we're not going to get the same price for our stores. The person who buys your store can expect to take home $1M per year right off the bat. You'd get quite a bit for a $1M profit stream. Duke's going to get less because $50K isn't very exciting -- a lot of reasonably educated people could do better by working a regular job and not working 16 hours per day. Finally, I'm going to get very little for mine. The person who buys mine will have to keep funnelling more money into it. Only an idiot would pay the same price to me that you get."

The logic of Price/Sales is that it values the inherent potential of a business. In your example, I would buy yours for a fraction of mine, and implement identical management practices that allow mine to earn $1M per year. If you sold it for a fraction of mine, you are giving away the potential $1M earnings power that should exist under proper management (i.e. if one store can earn $1M on $10M in sales, it should be possible for others to do the same). P/E is a metric of what is and P/S is a metric of what could be. Of course I would not tell you that when I was negotiating with you to buy your store! ;-)

The question related to IBM and HPQ is, which has the greatest potential for upside in market share and margin improvement from today's situation? I believe HP has much higher upside potential than IBM in both areas. Price/Sales tells me (and I believe the market is agreeing) that HPQ is a bargain, or that IBM is over-valued, and possibly both. I expect P/S of the two companies will begin to converge as HP delivers results.

BTW, one other thing Carly said yesterday was that HP will repatriate about $6B in overseas earnings per year under the new tax bill. This can be invested in capital equipment, or paid to shareholders as dividends, or both. Sounds like a very good chance of a dividend increase in the near future.