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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34729)	6/4/2003 10:25:56 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, new mania ? who knows... financialsense.com I will continue to play it by ear. make less mistakes this month than last month and watch my pile go up 3 down 1 up 3 down 1......... I'm working on increasing the ups as there is no way to eliminate the occasional downs :o) My exuberance is also tempered somewhat, as if I am climbing a wall of worries. You may have noticed mine was already a tad tempered.. However I have an extensive collection of these trusts for a specific purpose and LT term they do deliver as expected with a little diligence. PMT was on the temporary list, unfortunately an inopportune event, 1 down. Back to the weather... My new 'cool weather for young growth' loving grass is doing famously. The June bugs, normally almost spent by this time have yet to appear (thankfully the culex are few too). Mother nature has sent us La Nina to spoil our fun. My LT energy trust holdings are solid (as an investment can be). A few more flyers may need to depart. Maybe I'm supposed to buy some gold with the PMT money ? Also the bulls over on Big Dogs thread are moderating their talk, (after all through their exuberance there's a pile of smart guys over there). regards Kastel

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34729)	6/5/2003 3:46:32 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Re: The lessons of asset class, geography and time diversification just got reinforced ... ouch. OTOH, really good insider information would make all the difference in a situation like this. I've read a bit about the deliberation of the Alberta EUB: news.google.com and it strikes me that these folks aren't that different from the Texas Railroad Commission, historically speaking. As some here know, the Texas Railroad Commission's most important role has nothing to do with railroads. It is, rather, in regulating the oil & gas industry in Texas. If one were to follow their deliberations, one would have a clear idea of what developments were favored, when production caps would come in to play, etc. [As an historical aside, one of the Texas Railroad Commission's most famous decisions was to shut down the East Texas oil fields in the vain hope to raise prices from essentially zero to ten cents per barrel of crude oil in 1930.] Wouldn't the best place for a speculator be in the cat bird's seat at any regulatory agency's preliminary discussions? Say you were a media speculator. Wouldn't it be lovely to be able to chat with Mike Powell and Kathleen Abernathy at the FCC last week, last month and last year and find out whether or not they were dragging Kevin Martin along with the sell-out of American democracy? If you were like that lobbyist Kevin Maines, who had 34 meetings with Powell in that period, while the public got one meeting, you'd know where to invest. Now wouldn't you? Hell, you'd even know where to speculate, now wouldn't you? They say the best things in life are free. What they meant was that the best things in the life of the regulator you are going to seduce are free. And the rest is market profit. The best way to predict the future is to create it.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34729)	6/5/2003 6:21:07 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<as most of my shares, regardless of industry, national origin, or relative valuation, are all rising, making me believe I am a genius, which I know I am not, I therefore must conclude we are now in a echo bubble boom, reverberation mania, due to the weight of money sloshing about.> Jay, that's part of my years old script. We are on the same page, at last. Whether this is the start of the up-cycle or another dead-cat reverberation [echo dead-cat reverberation] I don't know. As Uncle Al, KBE, says about bubbles, we'll know when we look back. I have a sneaking suspicion that it's another dollop of wishful thinking [even though we are three years into the market clearing process and bringing back to earth of dreamers]. Keep in mind that you are not a genius, but might be right nevertheless, by the equivalent of genius, which is dumb luck or random fortuitous positioning. The word is irrelevant, the outcome is all that laws of nature respect. I'm guessing echo bubble boom [not dead-cat reverberation as that is too negative for my liking - the world is inherently a positive place with the arrow of time opposing entropy and black holes as proven by the fact that we are here, above -270 deg K and above the event horizon of the universe and warm, with restaurants full of food, happy people and music playing]. But I have a bob each way, just in case. Mqurice