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To: TobagoJack who wrote (244042)	6/5/2003 9:59:18 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>>> In such an environment as we now find ourselves in, the import/exporter who devotes the resources to game the forex market, if done right/lucky, is doing productive work. <<< Well not exactly ...... If relating to the last few weeks ........ except of pure luck ........ to have a person dedicated for amounts of less that few million is not cost effective, based on prevailing compensations and hedging costs Jay, the issues is not long term trend, the issue I brought up is the FX markets since around May 20, and more so the volatility of last 5 working days - wild intra-day swings of over 2.5% resulting from minor or anticipated economic data. Even today for example the EUR dipped to 1.1630 from 1.760 a day before only to rise to 1.1860 today all on anticipated news....no surprises ........ and that is my point. The reason ? the EUR rose last month over 10% due to "rate differentials" according to the talking heads .... then dropped because EZ economy is in recession and it seems the US is recovering and the ECB will lower interest rates by 0.5% ....... so all this happen and still there are those gyration. My take is that all this is related to big banks who know were the stop losses are placed and they bust them ..... nothing to do with fundamentals that a smart small business owner can follow based on economic news etc. From talking to bank traders that exactly what happens the big banks just go into busting stop losses. Longer term the FX markets may be right but not really -- there was no justification for the UDX to be at 120 in February last year or the EUR around 0.86 but then again it was. Two years ago every banker was predicting EUR at 0.7 to the USD why ? No real reason ........ EZ was in better shape than today but now same entities praise the EUR and target it at 1.25 per USD ...... Why the 80% swing in anticipated valuation ? ....... I do not have the explanation, as economic fundamentals moved in reverse........ EZ weaker and the US stronger on a relative basis........ even the stock markets are reflecting that on a relative basis