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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonka552000 who wrote (20016)	6/5/2003 12:00:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

in my view, stock bubble is clear feeble 2000 bubble retest it is attracting all the deep vested interested folks e.g. stock analysts, mutual funds, pension funds, momentum investors, illiterate investors who lost their asses the retest will likely end up eventually the same way like down down down significantly it is largely sustained by Fed Monetization of TENS and S&P baskets much of the Fed's activities are unconstitutional, but cheered but the Contrary Investor analysis linked here... contraryinvestor.com makes a great argument that we are probably setting up a powerful technical rectangle for the S&P, Dow, Naz to live inside for the next 2-3 years and in time, each index will break down to new lows but for now, the rectangle will contain the damage and expectorations I personally believe that 3 major factors will take the stock indexes below the rectangle of Dow 7700-9500 1. lost jobs (systemically, broadly, climaxed in car sector) 2. imported product price inflation (from Europe first, then Asia) 3. higher energy costs (both oil and natgas) the vehicle will be the gradual erosion of the Real Estate bubble anyone who doesnt believe an RE bubble exists, should examine tech/telecom/media/internet stocks in 1999-2000 fundamentals on rent, occupancy, time on market, valuation growth versus income growth all indicate a bubble and the greatest force in maintaining the bubble is the Fed that article by the BigFisherman on "Housing Cover Clause" was very insightful the Fed is backing the USDollar with the housing sector it wont work for much longer the fundamentals wont sustain it the parallels with tech/telecom/media/internet are too clear far more time will be required for nature to catch up these wizards who are not only inept, but arrogant / jim