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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DD™ who wrote (30063)	6/7/2003 9:59:08 PM
From: Jeff	Respond to of 30712

thanks bud.....but i don't consider the calls remarkable and no way am i an expert..... i have no choice but to be right or as close to right as possible....because i choose to do this for my living and i'm not rich and with no paycheck.....i can't afford to be wrong like many on these threads who obviously by their bad calls have money to lose or a paycheck to back up their mistakes.... if i blindly followed some of these know it all types or ego types on these message boards and all their bad calls the last year....i would be looking for a job by now..... but i take matters into my own hands and i found a simple and effective way to see the market....and i posted exactly how i did it the past year here with all my t/a and things i look for so "anybody" could do the same thing....and see the same things i do.... the whole thing is...keep it simple...and use what works..... last year...using history of bubble retraces as a guide......i made a map for the "downside risk"....because history showed the bubble retrace wasn't over.....so i saw the drop to 1000 was possible....so i planned for it...so i wouldn't be "hurt" by it..... this year....using history as a guide....i made a map for "upside potential"...because history showed after a big washout like 2000-2002....there was a great chance for a big rally....i could see 1700's was very possible...so i "planned" for it so it wouldn't hurt me short and i could gain from it by riding it up..... death blows.....a bearish trend indicator....last year on every single chart there were death blows confirming the downside...the downtrend....all called right here.... anti-venom...AV...a bullish trend indicator.....last oct-nov and from april till now....AV is on every chart confirming the upside...the uptrend....all called right here.... in oct-nov it was "daily" AV...not longterm....and it wasn't on the weekly or monthly....so it only lasted through november....but it was a sign of things to come as it started to turn the monthly charts up.....at that point is when i warned the shorts in dec-jan about 2003 and the upside that would kill them..... what happened...monthly AV formed in april....monthly AV hit...monthly is longer term strength......and you have seen the result so far as we just hit 1684 nasdaq.....and small stocks have been running hard for months now......there has been AV all over the place on charts of strong stocks..... thats everything this thread was about....pierce and sucker....AV-DB....and the fact bubbles retrace..... and the fact is as proven here....bubbles do retrace in a similar pattern from past bubbles.....P&S works...it works in downtrends and uptrends....thats all "fact" proven right here and talked about "before" they all happened........AV-DB works because its been on every single chart the last year and every single chart through out "history".....and it was all called "before" it happened......and because its on every chart.....DB last year in a bearish trend....and AV this year in a bullish trend......its all "fact".....and proven here.... is this all guru stuff that only a few know about it...... no....anybody can see this stuff.....its all basic simple down to earth...no "over analysis paralysis" t/a.....its not flashy like e-waves...or looking for COT or sentiment indicators...or reading t/a books with a bunch of useless info that just makes it complicated.... i see plenty of folks using all the flashy bells and whistles crap and they are totally lost 80% of the time....they out think themselves.... all you need to know is the trend.....the t/a for that trend...and a knowledge of bubbles...and their aftermath... thats all i use.....along with a little market smarts or gut feeling and common sense things that you can only get by observing things that always...and i mean always happens..... when the market shows strength....crap stocks...crappers always run....so whether you like them or not....they will run....and its easier to grab some gains on stocks running 100 to 1000% than it is to try and pinch out a few bucks by stocks moving 10-50%....i talked about them last november and its just common sense to know if they ran back then they would be running again now even better....and they have been.... i also built up message board common sense things....when you see a guy continue to make bad calls....you should know to do the opposite or look in the other direction....i have many people i "fade" on these threads because i just watched last year who made calls directly against that retrace i posted.....because it worked perfect for 6 months.....it was a great way to gauge how some of the ego types and certain know it all types who saw it working but their ego's still forced them to go against it and get hurt... that told me to be very wary of their calls in the future....because their ego's are in the way of seeing whats really happening out there.....and their views are bias.....and they won't see a trend change in time because they won't admit they missed it till its way too late.... and if they have money to lose or a paycheck to back them up.....thats fine for them but it doesn't do me any good.... so those types after seeing their calls the last year....i won't ignore them....i will use them in a way to better my own work by seeing what they are looking for and finding something thats the opposite and using that in my plans going forward.... things like that go into market sense.....and gut feeling along with many many things you need to observe each day and remember this stuff....it doesn't do you any good if you don't remember things... just remember...all these bear's now who are posting articles by their favorite bear "guru's"......these bear guru's missed most of the big bull run from 95-00 and really got killed bad in that blow off..... but became star guru's the last 3 years for obvious reasons....but guess what....history showed the bubble and how it retraced anyway.....it didn't take a guru to know history....i knew what was coming..... so now since most turned bear the last 3 years and most probably jumped on board the last year...well.....as long as you know your bear guru leader got killed before in a bull trend...and missed it all....and their down calls where nothing but what history was going to do anyway..... well...if you want to put your faith in those types.....you better expect plenty of pain in bull trends.....cause they never could see them coming.....and there won't be more historic bubble retraces to bail out there bad calls again...... so....i use that knowledge to help me in the future also.....the more they scream down....i'll be looking for a path that says the opposite..... anyway....keep things simple....remember all the bad things that go wrong and don't repeat those mistakes.....and learn to think for yourself instead of putting your faith in so called guru's.....learn "simple" t/a....the more you complicate t/a the more useless it becomes...."know market history"....and have the guts to go "against" the crowd and even guru's on these boards.... theres no magic wand.....it just takes hard work and dedication to find what works and block out all the noise this market throws at you to mess you up and take your money...thats the markets job....to screw the most people.... and i consider it a war against me and the market and other traders....and because its them or me....and its about survival..... i'm going to find the best weapons possible to beat them.....and use my enemies weaknesses to my advantage..... i found some effective t/a that works in both bull and bear trends....i found a weakness in the market in that it repeats past history of bubbles....and i found a weakness in other traders from watching them on threads.... so i add it all together....and go into the market each day and give it my "best" shot....thats all anybody can do.... so far i survived....and thats all that matters.... but its nothing special i do.....its all simple stuff....and the funny thing is....i showed it "all" right here so anybody could be doing the same.....but how many are....very very few.... it just takes an open mind to see it because others are mostly looking the other way because most blindly follow others...