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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2158)	6/6/2003 2:51:34 PM
From: benwood	Respond to of 4904

looks like the pages in the forums are stripped down to decrease bandwidth requirements. Seems to be faster now to me, although navigation is a hassle.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2158)	6/6/2003 3:25:02 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 4904

Date: Fri Jun 06 2003 13:31 trotsky (RIP&fatty) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved indeed, this is the crux of the problem: consumption without preceding production...exchanging nothing ( fiat money ) for something ( goods and services ) . the Keynesians and the New-and -improved-Keynesians ( who call themselves 'supply siders' ) want us to believe that setting up even more exchanges of nothing for something will somehow be a good thing. fatty: true, they're scared to death about the interlocking derivatives bubble going splat. but that does by no means lead to the conclusion that it somehow won't happen. remember Rudi Dornbusch ( MIT 'economist' ) , anno '98? "we will never have a recession or a bear market again, because the Fed doesn't want one". sure enough, they 'didn't want one' as the panicky lowering of official interest rates at their fastest pace ever attests to. and still it happened, demonstrating once again that ultimately, NO-ONE is bigger than the market. Date: Fri Jun 06 2003 15:18 trotsky (Goldfish) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the vast difference between now and 1982 is that NOW, not everybody has given up. on the contrary -a recent AAII investor poll saw the worst bull/bear spread since the March 2000 top. what's more, in '82 stocks were exceedingly cheap by every available yerdstick ( single digit p/e ratios, over 5% yield, Tobin's Q in undervalued territory, etc. ) , especially in real terms. and it is true, in spite of stocks saying 'we're a screaming buy here' nobody believed they were, or that a big boom could be just around the corner. today is obviously very much different from both a fundamental and a sentiment perspective. the GAAP p/e ratio of the SnP 500 is over 40 per yesterday. to achieve 1982 valuations, this index would have to fall by 80% from here. Date: Fri Jun 06 2003 13:46 trotsky (Goldfish) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved don't forget, Japan's deflation has been the direct result of the preceding boom as well - and i agree with you that the long boom-bust cycles we experience are destructive. and we also agree that the central banks are to blame, which is why i wouldn't want to look to them for viable 'solutions'. the only truly viable solution is a free market money, not controlled by the government. a pipe dream, i know, but nevertheless the ONLY option that makes sense to me. the experience of the 19th century, when there was at least a brake on monetary recklessness because gold was still used as money and the welfare state hadn't come into existence yet, provides ample proof...there was long term price stability, coupled with enormous ( by today's standards ) economic growth.