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To: Sam Citron who wrote (5905)6/9/2003 9:58:29 AM
From: willcousa  Respond to of 13403
 
Thanks for a most interesting article.

There is "inflation" and then there is inflation. It is not enough to look at the aggregate numbers. The aggregates can be influenced by price spikes in commodities when the general level of inflation is really declining.

The same has to hold true for deflation. I don't think that declining prices overall are enough to look at. Those declining prices that result from increased efficiencies should not be considered to be a part of the problem. Isn't the problem that stems from "deflation" one in which no one is buying so price levels collapse for want of demand? That was Japan and the great depression in spades. It is hard to say that no one is buying when home building is shooting through the roof (pun intended). The great amount of money going into housing for quite some time now has to have hurt the sale of other goods. People have quit buying cars but that had to occur - how many new cars can the economy absorb before it cries uncle? About what it has absorbed.

I don't have any answers here but I am sceptical about the deflation scenario as yet.

Will