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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (2165)	6/6/2003 10:59:07 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4904

dude.. i'm very glad you came here. and i'm not kidding. take a day and take this panic moment and sort it out. remember time. so far, overnite, is not yet overnite.

To: Perspective who wrote (2165)	6/6/2003 11:47:02 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 4904

Hi bobcor, Let me figure out a personal financial survival plan. Script: - US FED orchestrates a 2:1 split of the USD - US Administration drops tax take, increases borrowing - US States soak up the Administration’s tax decrease with offsetting tax rises, net net washing out the effects of Federal tax decrease - USD-space (including much of Asia) inflation rises to somewhere between 3 and 100% - USD-space real estates rises to the extent people believe inflation will overwhelm cost of mortgage and to the extent that monthly cashflow can service principal repayment (I suppose a new FED/Fannie innovation can be the popularization of balloon principal repayment at time of sale, cushioned by more new fangled derivative and mortgage insurance paper) - US incomes rise to partial extent of generalized inflation rate, with consequent decrease in general standard of living, but not enough to matter, at first - US businesses continue to outsource to and import from Asia, as the Asian currencies will embrace the USD in its downward adjustment, as Asia can more productively use the liquidity for pent-up demands of infrastructure, housing, etc - Some USD-space (including much of Asia) equities may rise, adjusting to new math of brand new economy’s costs and revenues - Some USD-space equities may fall, adjusting to same brand new economy’s costs and revenues If this is the Script that plays out, then we may expect: - Domestic political tensions leading to geo-political crisis - Financial volatility - Economic redistribution - Social upheaval In which case, we may consider the more likely winners to be: - USD-space based commodity suppliers (NEM vs AU) - USD-space based manufacturing companies on growth trajectory (Legend/Dell, vs General Motors) in all of USD-space - USD-space based financial institutions on growth trajectory in all of USD-space (CitiCorp as opposed to Liberty Mutual) - Non-USD currencies - Where energy sits is a puzzle to me. The US doesn’t have much of oil left. Coal could win. Natural gas, if based in US as opposed to Canada, may do better. I cannot imagine that EU will simply sit in non-reaction to above developments:0( 2004 promises to be even more exciting than 1999-2003, as we must participate in experimenting with our future ;0) Actually, I imagine that because the whole world is led by the US, I expect all economic space to release liquidity, all to try and take this opportunity to wash away the debt-ly and social obligation sins of the past. In such a redistribution scheme, most people will lose a bit, some will lose a lot, and a few will win plenty. Chugs, Jay

To: Perspective who wrote (2165)	6/7/2003 2:27:02 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4904

your scenario assumes of course the willing or unwilling participation of other major economic powers which hold US debt....it also assumes that the US does not suffer some kind of powerful reversal in global perceptions of it as safe haven does it not? Can you show me a historical example of debasement of a countries currency leading to any kind of economic salvation? It would appear to me as well, that one crucial flaw in your scenario, is that it neglects thefactthat we are deeply in the process of exporting deflation to the rest of the globe.