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To: John Madarasz who wrote (266)	6/8/2003 2:32:10 AM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 1417

The dangers of euro delay Andrew Marr BBC political editor news.bbc.co.uk What are the dangers of delay in joining the euro? When it comes to the euro, it is far easier to list the reasons for putting a referendum off, than the reasons for pressing ahead. Assuming the decision is "no, not yet", then it won't only be because Gordon Brown is blocking the prime minister. It's also because Tony Blair knows a crazy bet when he sees one. (edit: Oh really? Tony joined "gamblers annoymous" when he played his Iraq hand imho... pb) To shift public opinion in the longer term may be entirely possible. Though British voters are against the euro, they also think we will eventually join it. This suggests a deep-down fatalism; people expect to be pushed into accepting the single currency, even against their own first instincts. But not now. The major continental economies are in visible trouble and Britain continues, relatively speaking, to flourish. Both Blair and Brown call regularly for economic reform throughout the EU and claim to see signs that it is starting. But there are still obvious gaps between the continental capitalisms and the British system. Aftertaste of war The chancellor gives the impression not that Britain is unready to join the euro block, but that they are not quite ready or fit to join us. The prime minister may have hoped that a successful war against Iraq, with his critics seen off and a liberated people praising him, would have helped give him the authority at home to push harder for the euro, even so. But the sour aftertaste of this war, with the questions about its real motivation and even legality, have not put him in the commanding position he would need to lead us into the euro. He is advised that holding a referendum now, with so many popular papers so bitterly opposed and with the economies out of synch, his chancellor still not ready and with his own credibility being questioned, would be political suicide. For someone like Tony Blair, who has made so much of his belief in our European destiny, to fight and lose a referendum on the euro would be catastrophic. It would be a symbolic shattering of authority, comparable to John Major's Black Wednesday. So it seems much safer to put the whole thing off. Referendum Though Mr Blair may want to leave open the impression that we could still have a referendum before the next election, in practice this may be difficult. Next year will be dominated by the controversy over the European constitution and after that we are heading towards the election itself. A government that has delayed for the past six years seems unlikely to rush boldly at this in the next two years. So Mr Blair will have to endure a rising sense of disbelief in the euro zone about his real European credentials. He sees himself as the natural leader of the more liberal and reformist EU countries, including the new members. He may start to lose that position, but there are no obvious rivals for it. He may even fret that longer term, any prospect of him becoming Europe's first elected president is for the birds. Those are real worries for him. But not for most of the rest of the country. It's beginning to look as if he'll need to win another election if he wants to get us into the euro. (edit edit: JM. Thanks for the Yergin Website... excellent)