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To: Les H who wrote (11105)6/7/2003 10:21:30 AM
From: Wyätt GwyönRespond to of 306849
 
Glickenhaus interview in Barron's. unfortunately the person interviewing him is totally clueless. makes you wish Barron's had kept Kate Welling.
online.wsj.com



To: Les H who wrote (11105)6/7/2003 10:45:08 AM
From: Wyätt GwyönRespond to of 306849
 
from Abelson, talking to TrimTabs:

The subject is the State of Illinois and more particularly its pension fund. According to Chuck, Illinois can claim the dubious distinction of a huge gap -- perhaps the hugest among all 50 states, for all anyone knows -- between its pension-fund assets and expected future liabilities. Which leads him to the not completely off-the-wall conclusion that the state has done a less than superlative job of managing its pension fund.

Unfortunately, exactly how bad was the fund's performance and especially that of the equity part of the fund, Chuck concedes, is difficult to say because no one who might be able to enlighten him on that score answered his telephone calls.

In any case, last week Illinois sold $10 billion worth of five- and 10-year pension-fund obligation bonds, with taxable coupons of up to 3 5/8% for the 10-year paper. Obviously, undaunted by its seemingly less-than-stellar past experience, the pension fund believes it can earn more than a 3 5/8% annual return in the next five-to-10 years by investing in stocks. The fund has not, as far as can be discovered, disclosed the basis for such confidence in its investment prowess. Chuck's speculation in this regard is that it likely stems from assurances by interested professionals that the equity market is destined to rise at least 8% a year from here till eternity.

Besides the need to eventually pay back the $10 billion, Chuck observes, the fund will have to earn enough to more than pay the interest on the bonds. For, he notes, the offering circular reveals that part of the $10 billion will be used to recompense the Illinois general fund for past pension expenses the general fund graciously absorbed. How much of the $10 billion is ticketed for that purpose he isn't able to say because of the aforementioned failure to respond to his phone calls.

Chuck sees Illinois' ingenious initiative as part of "a new bubble in the making." Especially, it strikes us, if other states follow its lively lead and float bonds to play the stock market.

online.wsj.com