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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (30075)	6/8/2003 11:59:22 AM
From: Jeff	Respond to of 30712

there is no way to know for sure if that was a top.... since its only been one day.....and a fast drop was expected....just have to wait to see how the next few days act.... about the only thing i can see right now making a case for it being a top is that the folks who have been calling tops in the 1400's and 1500's and last week when we crossed over 1600....and now the friday top.... well...sooner or later they will be right....the odds are starting to get better for them.....<ggg> other than wishing or wanting it to be a top....theres other things that say more up is possible.... obviously since i made the post about 1700's this year back in december.....and i follow history......and we got close to 1700's in this rally....its pretty obvious history is repeating again.....to the disbelief of many......but thats normal....nobody believed that retrace last year till it was near the bottom.....so i could have posted another one that i've been following this year and shorts still would have been shorting this rally all the way up because nobody believes this stuff.... and thats why its working like it does....the less who believe in something...the better it works....the more popular things get.....well....the less effective it gets.... the thing is....the "easy" retrace stuff is over.....that period off the top like the drop from 29-32 was obvious even to the naked eye.....how folks couldn't see that last year is beyond me.....as many were looking in the 1960's and 70's which had nothing to do with a bubble.... now its alot harder.....cause its now the retrace after the initial drop.....and this one can take "many" paths.... so knowing that....if you don't have knowledge of at least 4-5 retraces....and their break points....you don't have a chance to follow any of this....and you need a reliable trend indicator to confirm break points... anyway....i have several of the mentioned above pointing higher....a canary pointing to 1700's and possibly 1800's as i posted already..... to go with the AV that hit in april on the "monthly"....i now have a "trailing full" breaking above 50 for the first time in years....its of course early in the month...but that would be a "trailing full short killer" if it keeps tracking up.... as far as more possible non t/a reasons for more up..... its june...end of quarter half year...will funds want to give up all these gains this close to that...or will they want to hold this market up to paint a pretty picture on end of quarter statements.... lots of folks missed this rally and will be praying for a dip to get in.....this market rise is getting to be big news now and the buying pressure could actually increase as more realize they are being left out .... will they dump the market before the 4th of july...or hold it up so the market will be all the talk at picnics....then after the 4th even more buying comes in... things like that lead to march 2000 like blow off tops.... for me...the thing is....i have things showing nasdaq ending the year either at 1450-1500 for say 10-12% gain.....and something else showing closing at 1650-1700 for say around a 25% gain.... and in one case...the top this year will be seen again early next year.... so it wouldn't be like a nasdaq 5000 top never to be seen again....unless this top here goes over 2000.... and shorts who got hurt bad in this ramp....are going to have a hard time making it up on any down unless they nail tops perfect and ride it back down and cover at a bottom and go long the next time instead of shorting another up.... history shows...after the bubble top...and the initial big drop of a few years.....well...at that point....history shows the following year off that bottom point is "not" the year to be shorting..... and i believe shorts are finding that out..... it also shows...the shorts have seen their best days...the playing field is more equal now.....meaning pretty much sideways to slightly up action coming.... and in that type market....and doing the "math"....unless shorts nail perfect tops and ride them to perfect bottoms and cover....well....shorts only won't have a chance....you have to long these rallies and get the better percentage gains from the long side also...... pretty much.....a traders market.... percentage wise... advantage bulls.