To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (2044 ) 6/9/2003 10:47:46 PM From: LindyBill Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793928 Released: June 08, 2003 Kerry Tops List of Democrat Hopefuls in New Hampshire; Dean a Close Second; 76% of Dems Say Bush Re-election Likely, According to New Zogby Poll Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is the most popular Democratic presidential candidate in New Hampshire polling by Zogby International for the state?s primary election next January, followed closely by former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, 25% - 22%. Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman was a distant third at 10%. Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, regarded as likely to win the Democratic caucus in Iowa, finished fourth in New Hampshire polling with 7%. North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich each earned 2% of the vote, and the three remaining declared candidates, Florida Senator Bob Graham, civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton, and former Illinois Senator Carol Mosely Braun, tallied less than one percent each. More than one in four (27%) likely voters remain undecided. More than three-fourths (76%) of the likely Democratic primary voters said they think it is very likely (34%) or somewhat likely (42%) that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they intend to vote. Zogby International polled 600 likely New Hampshire voters June 4 - 7. The margin of error is +/- 4.1%. Margins are higher in sub-groups. Half of the respondents (50%) said they are satisfied with the current field of Democratic presidential candidates, while 43% said they wished other candidates were running. Nearly two-thirds (63%) said the candidate?s positions on the issues are more important than the candidate?s values and personal character (25%). New Hampshire Democrats are nearly equally divided in their support of the war in Iraq, with just over half (51%) saying they somewhat or strongly support the war with Iraq, while 48% say they are opposed. Nearly half (46%) of the respondents say their candidate should be one who supported the war with Iraq, while just over one-in-three (31%) say the party should nominate a candidate who opposed the war with Iraq. Of the current field of candidates, Dean was most vocal in his opposition to the war. More than two-thirds (67%) said they would support a candidate who opposes the Bush tax plan, even though that person does not use class warfare rhetoric, while 21% would not support that candidate and 11% were not sure. In February New Hampshire polling by Zogby International, Kerry enjoyed a 2-1 lead over Dean, 26% - 13%, with Gephardt at 11% and Lieberman at 9% (600 likely primary voters, conducted February 22-24). Not surprisingly in the polling just completed, Kerry also topped the list of favorability ratings of the nine candidates: Candidate Favorable % Unfavorable % Unfamiliar % Kerry 69 17 12 Lieberman 61 23 12 Gephardt 58 23 17 Dean 53 10 36 Edwards 30 9 58 Graham 23 23 52 Mosely Braun 18 20 60 Kucinich 11 11 76 Sharpton 11 54 33 Pollster John Zogby: "Kerry holds his lead but the real story here is Dean's rise. At the same time, Dean has a burden: how to knock down the very popular Kerry, whose favorability rating and ratio are solid. Dean, who is still not known among 36% of the voters, runs the risk of hurting himself with a negative campaign. The other key story here is the battle for third place - right now Lieberman and Gephardt. A Gephardt victory in Iowa could boost him to the third place he will need in New Hampshire. Essentially that could thrust him into a two-way race with the winner. Lieberman must win somewhere and right now he is not cutting it in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Next to Lieberman's anemic showing in this New England state, the worst news is for Graham whose 23%-23% favorable-unfavorable rating suggests a real problem holding on until Super Tuesday (February 3, 2004). Edwards has a good ratio but is still not catching on."zogby.com