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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34852)6/10/2003 12:15:49 PM
From: John Carragher  Respond to of 74559
 
I think the last three years is the reverse of the wealth effect. g



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34852)6/11/2003 5:17:39 AM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
< Once rates stabilize or go up, all refinancing activities will stop. What is that going to do to unemployment? >

I would love to know the answer to those types of questions....

The economy is ever more the 'service' economy; service of what? What about similar sectors to what you sight? It's been said that the financial sector is by far the largest user of tech for instance... what if this latest bounce in the stock market doesn't hold, what does another bout of profit implosion do to unemployment in finance [another bloated sector], and to tech? Where does the current profit implosion in auto's and airtravel end, and how many more jobs to be lost there by "dead airlines flying" and the auto business, and what ramifications to all the 'support industries'???

Overall, is the economy more or less resilient to a continued downturn than in the last real recession over 20 years ago?

DAK



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34852)6/11/2003 3:07:59 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
>> I wonder how much of the labor force are working as "temps" in real estate and mortgage related bubbles. Appraisers, loan reps, processors, escrow officers .....<<

perhaps a quarter of a million is not a conservative estimate<g>. I have heard lot of people claims the job market has been great for mortgage refinance in the last 2 years.

And another booming "profession" is Repo (repossess) <g>



To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34852)6/12/2003 7:04:24 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 74559
 
<What is the reverse of "wealth effect"? >

Ramsey, you know it's "poverty effect" and that Sudden Poverty Syndrome is far worse than the Sudden Wealth Syndrome with which people were burdened during the irrational exuberance of early Y2K and for which actual, real pyschotherapists were in business to help people resolve [or so rumour had it anyway].

Mqurice