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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (17183)	6/10/2003 11:27:29 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

Still holding my URS shares. Some updates follow: I sold 3/8 of my position in thread favorite, BAMM, on today's pop. (Not a valuation call; I just got tired of holding and waiting.) In past couple of days I scared myself out of 1/3 of my shares of DCX. Also about 1/2 of gaming stock MGG. I added to exploratory position LH after it received a brokerage downgrade a couple days back. I've been working on establishing a very small position in thinly-traded real-estate operating company AQQ. I like the insider buying. (Risky stock. The company is losing money as it tries to nail-down what its core business is and what its geographical focus will be.) I added to small position in crum-bum managed THC. This hospital sector looks relatively inexpensive to me. I've started a position in TRI. Here's a company with okay p/e (10-11 expected this year, per Yahoo); l4 of 19 analysts with buy or strong buy on the stock (This could be a negative! -g-); and selling below stated book value. There's not a long period of public history that I see, but it looks like p/sales has come down, possibly to reflect reduction in medicare payments. I notice several value investors have (or had) positions in the stock, viz. Sound Shore, Ruane,Cuniff. I assume there's competition among hospitals, but I also assume there are barriers to entry in the business. Regardless of government payments/rules/regs it seems like hospitals will still be in demand, and its hard to see how foreign competition can hurt them (although some elective surgeries might be done cheaper outside the USA). jmo, and I've been wrong many, many times. Comments welcome regarding these stocks. finance.yahoo.com -------------------------------------------------------- Appears to be good timing on your part, Bob Rudd regarding URS. Nice example of being flexible, imo.

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (17183)	7/24/2003 4:17:49 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78751

URS: Out again @19.20 [100% gain on all activity] on combination of the shelf registration and some comments on Yahoo board that may indicate some earnings quality issues. The shelf has 7mm+ shares offered by 'selling stockholders' who are NOT current management, but instead hold the shares from their sale of EG&G to URS...so this is not as bad as insider selling usually is...just prior owners cashing out. My concern is more about 20% of float additional supply than 'They know more, and want out'. The earnings quality issue is very fuzzy, but contract accounting presents big opportunities for fun and games that are no fun for holders when the lights come on. There are also chart-based negative indications. I've got a big gain in this since my initial foray <6 months ago, and I tend to be a bit suspicious of large gains in short time frames...to sell generous spikes, so I'm taking it off the table despite still reasonable EV multiples.