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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34875)	6/11/2003 8:34:49 AM
From: John Carragher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

got caught up in real estate bubble in early 80's... bought a house in LA on a promissory note.. guy ran down to San Diego with my note and bought a house with it... That guy moved to Chicago and bought a house with my note... Six months later my job was eliminated , couldn't sell my house, home equity dropped my value by 25% of cost six months earlier and the company picked up the house... I was one of 1200 employees who lost their shirts and the company was holding payments on 1200 houses. They turned around and dropped the prices almost another 25% and sold them all off. I remember a bunch of young sales folks buying condos along the shore line in Boston.. Everyone of them lost their shirt. It will be a sad day as we go through it once again. I see these people locked into 30 year mortgages at very low rates and then rates increasing.. and housing dropping as folks will not be able to buy the houses with higher rates and the current mortgages have policies that can not be passed on to new buyer.. They will end up losing big time in the house they purchased thinking they only had to worry about monthly payments and not devaluation. Wonder how many will walk away if housing prices come down big time.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34875)	6/11/2003 8:45:55 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Ramsey, <<this thread must have some contagious virus. I am ranting like Jay and Maurice>> What is there to rant about? (a) Hong Kong television is now airing advertisements paid for by the government, funded by taxpayers, to encourage Wang3Cups to consume (scenes of seafood dinners, theatre crowds, bars, and shops); (b) My portfolio is not rising as fast as the USD is falling; (c) Whatever wealth I do have are forced to wander around the dangerous financial-scape, from bond-space to currency-territory to equity destination and back to currency-territory, facing much danger with each move; (d) Gold still has not pierced the USD 400 line; (e) All the while I have to be alert to the dangers in real space, guard against bird flu, lookout for SARS fever, think about Mad Cows, contemplate Monkey Pox, and do something about Dengue Fever; and (f) Listen to the spin about current disinflation, never-deflation, recovery around the 2nd half, road map to peace, preventative war, USD 43 trillion shortfall, and the absolute worst drivel, the one about productivity gains. Chugs, Jay

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34875)	6/11/2003 10:05:47 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<Damn, this thread must have some contagious virus. > LOL, stick around... Mq's rants have been on the wane, you can pick up the slack! Agree, with your assessment. I also wonder about our 'service' economy as you can see, and whether those jobs may not be much more expendable in a longer downturn [lot's of them arent really necessities]. Time will tell, it's a new paradigm, and we'll find out about these things after the fact. Certainly I look around and see as plain as day the the days of squeezing more per worker is done at the lower and mid end... short of firing them. DAK

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34875)	6/11/2003 1:04:13 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

How soon would the baby boomers realize that the real estate wealth effect is a bigger bubble than the irrational exuberant stock market bubble. Though I did capitalize on some inflated stocks, I failed to take full advantage of the stock bubble. Not about to miss out on the real estate bubble, even if I don't sell at the top. Just sold my bubble abode. Made a killing. "Location, location, location" is time-worn phrase but it works. Moving into something just as nice but smaller. Putting down a more or less 60% down payment on a 15 year mortgage. Taking care of the kiddo's future education expenses on the assumption that there will be decent stock market growth within the next 12-15 years. Socking away a nice chunk of cash but don't know where to put it yet. The real estate bubble will probably last a lot longer than the stock bubble as it is likely to be supported by low interest rates for at least the next year--and with that bit of advice and 75 cents you can get a Coke.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34875)	6/11/2003 1:12:24 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>>While we are very quick on criticizing Japan ... we are ourselves rapidly heading down the same path.<< Factually incorrect - US may be about to paint themselves in a similar corner as Japan has, but it's via completely different paths. While Japan overdid in terms of saving and investing in unwanted overcapacities(and real estate, but that's like sneezing - opportunistic disease accompanying more serious condition), US kealed over the other way by letting personal consumption win over saving, by letting M&A stand in for business expansion and by letting the net investment just fade out into oblivion. Any suggestion, that "there's enough overcapacity worldwide as it is" is fine with me. Just dont pay for products with US$, find some better means of exchange. Like, some IOU you can't print easily with your plastic inkjet... RegZ dj PS just finished listening to "Somebody to depend on" ...DaK?... That's another one from those times... PPS: rewound it ...

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (34875)	6/11/2003 2:54:48 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

>>Early retirement? Forget it.<< early retirement now is in China. Age 53 retirement is a must in most cases, to give rooms for younger workers. And get full pay until age 55, and then get a lifetime retirement pay around 90% of the regular salary. And here, 65, growing to 67, and retirement at age 70 will not be too far-fetched in future.