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To: MythMan who wrote (245005)6/11/2003 9:06:25 AM
From: Giordano Bruno  Respond to of 436258
 
Ya reckon? -g- PMI looks ready to rock. edit:nevermind



To: MythMan who wrote (245005)6/11/2003 9:28:01 AM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
creamer feels better about da mkt, you should too -g-

Not Enough Bad News to Keep This Market Down

By James J. Cramer
06/11/2003 08:12 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer

Someone called me yesterday on my radio show and asked if we are in a cyclical bull market within a bear market, or just a plain old-fashioned secular bull market.

I paused and then blasted this kind of nomenclature as an attempt to give lazy labels to something far more organic and less organized. You can't be blind to opportunities on the short side in bull markets, and you can't avert your eyes at longs in bear markets. The labels just don't help.


But then I got to thinking about the two different markets, the one before the exquisite moment and the one after, and I realized there is a real difference. Before the exquisite moment, there wasn't enough good news to keep the market from falling. Now there isn't enough bad news to keep it from rising.

Take this morning. Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) has to be the sorest thumb out there. This stock has climbed from $13 to $20 on expectations of something, I don't know, but it was obviously a hope of a return to growth.

This morning the company says the growth hasn't materialized, and it blamed SARS. But right after that story was reported, the State Department lifted the travel advisory to Hong Kong because the SARS epidemic has crested and is shrinking. Does that mean we should buy Texas Instruments because the stated reason for this decline in business has now been held in check? I guess so. Without more negatives like Texas Instruments, though, it's hard to see why we can't rally.

Texas Instruments doesn't do it for you? Consider Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis). I was initially convinced that Freddie Mac was hiding big losses. Why else would a guy not cooperate with the authorities and tamper with evidence?

I have since discovered that the evidence may indeed be unrelated to the actual probe. (The COO may have had some personal issues that he didn't want discussed publicly.) That means the issue was cookie-jar accounting, not massive fraud. That means the other banks, all of which were punished by Freddie Mac's news, may be buys, not sells. I'm now approaching it that way.

In other words, the news, while bad, isn't bad enough to keep us from rolling up.

That's how I think about this market. It's why the dips are still worth buying. It is why we aren't going to go down severely from these levels and why the battle will be to keep the market from rising, not to keep it from falling.

It's quite a difference when you think about it.